Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR

August 6, 2019

By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor

As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”

The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.

This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.

“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.

“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”

MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.

What is the basic MPR formula?

MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.

MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)

The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.

What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?

MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.

MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.

Why use the MPR formula?

Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.

With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.

CALCULATING MPR

What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?

You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).

How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?

Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.

How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?

Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).

For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.

OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.

How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?

Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.

Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.

How often is MPR calculated?

MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.

How much will my MPR change throughout the season?

You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.

My score is missing. How can it be added?

This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.

What are some common errors when calculating MPR?

When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.

What happens if a game is cancelled?

Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.

USING THE WEBSITE

Where can I find game scores?

A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.

“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”

How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?

Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.

The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).

You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.

How do I read the school schedule page?

The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.

Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.

The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.

PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.

Edison Becomes Champion Again to Close 2021-22 Girls Hoops Season

By Paul Costanzo
Special for MHSAA.com

March 19, 2022

EAST LANSING – Detroit Edison girls basketball is back on top. 

After having their past two seasons ended without a postseason loss, the Pioneers took back their throne Saturday night with a 73-55 Division 2 Final win against Grand Rapids West Catholic at the Breslin Center.

“Winning a state championship, it means everything to me,” Edison senior Ruby Whitehorn said. “Not getting it the last couple years really has been our motivation to get it this year. All our previous teammates, that’s why it’s so important to me, because they didn’t get the chance to do it.”

The title was the fourth for the Edison program, which won three straight from 2017-19 – the first two coming in Class C and the third in Division 2.

The tournament was canceled midway through in 2020 because of COVID-19, and Edison was forced to pull out of the 2021 tournament, also because of COVID-19. Both of those seasons, Edison was at least among the title favorites.

When given the opportunity to finish it on the court again, the Pioneers took full advantage. 

Whitehorn, this season’s Miss Basketball Award winner and a Clemson signee, led the way, scoring 28 points and grabbing nine rebounds. DePaul signee Madisen Wardell added 17 points and 10 rebounds.

Edison/West Catholic basketballThe only two seniors on the Edison roster came up biggest at the end of the third quarter and into the fourth, when the Pioneers turned a tight game into a comfortable victory.

“I would say it was our defense and talking on defense that always brings us back in the game,” Wardell said. “We weren’t down by much, but I know if we talk on defense, it’ll bring us back.”

The defense was led by Dakota Alston, who switched onto West Catholic star Abbey Kimball in the second half. Kimball, a Michigan State signee, scored 26 points in the game, but just seven during the second half, thanks in large part to the move to switch the bigger Alston onto her.

“I just made sure I didn’t let her have the ball,” said Alston, who added 10 points. “Coach (Monique) Brown said the best way to stop a good scorer is to make sure she doesn’t get the ball.”

Kimball noticed the change, and gave credit to Edison (19-3) for making things more difficult for her over the final 16 minutes.

“The first half, obviously I hit shots, got open and my teammates found me,” Kimball said. “In the second half they started to do more face guarding throughout the whole court. That was different. Kudos to them, they had really great defense and it’s tough to score on them regardless.”

The game was back and forth into the third quarter, and West Catholic (25-2) had a 36-35 lead about midway through it. 

But with Whitehorn picking up her third foul and getting a quick breather, the Pioneers not only held on, but grabbed a lead they wouldn’t relinquish, thanks to some free throws and a putback by Wardell.

“That was a competitive game,” West Catholic coach Jill VanderEnde said. “I thought we did a really nice job with our gameplan, really attacking Detroit Edison, and showing them that we wanted to come and we wanted to show them our best game. I thought we started out the game very physical and aggressive. Throughout the game we had that effort and tried to stay positive, which was really (a proud moment) for me.”

Edison/West Catholic basketballWhen Whitehorn came back, she took over, with several tough drives to the basket, eventually putting her team up 11 points in the fourth.

“We tried to contain her in a couple different ways with a couple different strategic defenses,” VanderEnde said. “And she’s just so athletic, she just maneuvered all around what we were trying to do strategically.”

Whitehorn is the fourth straight Miss Basketball to come from Edison, following Damiya Hageman, Gabrielle Elliott and Rickea Jackson. What she displayed Saturday was what Edison coach Monique Brown called a combination of all her predecessors, as she also added four assists and three steals to the stat sheet.

“I think Ruby, the last four years, she was able to, first of all, learn from each and every one of those players,” Brown said. “She has something that each one of those players were good at – she has a piece of all of those. She can pass the ball, she can score the ball, she plays good defense, she’s a good slasher. Gabrielle was a good slasher, Rickea Jackson could score, Damiya Hageman can pass the ball. She’s blended all of those three young ladies, and she can do a lot of different things on the court to help us be who we are.”

Devin Hageman had eight points and eight assists for Edison. Cadence Dykstra had nine points for West Catholic, and Emma Tuttle grabbed nine rebounds.

Click for the full box score.

PHOTOS (Top) Detroit Edison celebrates Saturday’s final championship after clinching in Division 2. (Middle) Edison’s Ruby Whitehorn beats a pair of defenders to the basket for a layup. (Below) Dakota Alston (4) launches a pass over West Catholic’s Abbey Kimball. (Click for more from Hockey Weekly Action Photos.)