Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
McGuire Emerges from Cancer, Amputation to Return to Golf Course, Soccer Pitch
By
Tom Spencer
Special for MHSAA.com
June 3, 2022
A lot has happened since Dan Alto and MacKale McGuire first met eight years ago around the game of golf.
Alto was helping out at the Cadillac Country Club. McGuire was playing there in the junior golf program.
Today, Alto coaches golf at Cadillac High School, and McGuire serves as the captain preparing to lead the Vikings into the MHSAA Finals next weekend.
“Mac is an extremely polite, determined young man,” Alto said. “He is an outstanding student, which will serve him well as he attends college and pursues a career.
“With his work ethic, I have no doubt that Mac is going to find great success in whatever he decides to do.”
McGuire has plans to play golf at the next level as he moves on to Kalamazoo College in the fall.
Many might assume the last few years that have passed since Alto and McGuire first met have been a struggle — but not McGuire.
His left leg was amputated above the knee four years ago after a battle with osteosarcoma, a type of bone cancer.
McGuire is now preparing to walk at commencement. He looks back and sees only a varsity golfer, soccer player and theatre performer ready to take on the world.
“I just consider myself another person,” said McGuire, known as Mac to many. “I guess everyone has their differences.
“I guess mine is a more apparent kind of thing.”
McGuire learned to walk again with a prosthetic leg. He returned to golfing almost immediately and eventually played soccer and mastered downhill skiing. He’s been cancer free for more than five years.
When he steps on the golf course every day, he wants his teammates, coaches and opponents to see nothing more than a golfer. He’s seen all kinds of reactions to what others call a disability.
There’s no need to be politically correct around McGuire. In fact, he’d prefer you not be.
“Personally it (political correctness) just feels weird,” he said. “Just say it and get it over with.”
McGuire holds down the third golfing spot for the Vikings. He’s ready for some tough competition at the Finals after Cadillac qualified with a third-place finish at their Lower Peninsula Division 2 Regional.
“Mac is the kind of teammate coaches love,” said Alto, who with Brandon Bailey took over the Vikings golf program just as COVID-19 canceled the 2020 season. “He offers to drive younger teammates to practice when needed.
“He is never late for practice and leads by example … (and) always is happy for teammates that play well, even if he doesn't.”
McGuire’s tee shots get plenty of distance, but it’s the green game where he shines.
“I would say his true strength would be on the putting green,” Alto said. “He does a nice job of making the 5 to 6-foot putts that can save a round, and rarely three putts.”
Alto said McGuire is much more focused on his team’s success than his own.
“Like all golfers he wants to shoot a low score, but I get the feeling he wants to play well in order to help our team achieve goals more so than individual accolades,” Alto pointed out.
As a youngster, McGuire played a lot of soccer, basketball and golf. He really didn’t think soccer would be in his future when he made the decision to have his leg amputated in a Florida hospital.
“When I had the amputation, I didn’t even think it was a possibility I’d be able to play soccer,” he said. “I didn’t think soccer was in the question.”
He served as team manager for the Vikings’ JV soccer squad is sophomore season. One day, he was given the chance to play in a game.
“The coach just randomly told me to get out there and start playing,” he recalled. “I found out it was something I actually could do if I decided to work at it.
“I was able to play varsity my senior year.”
Paul King, who took over the Vikings boys soccer program in 2021, had met McGuire before he entered high school. He’s thrilled he had a chance to coach him on the soccer field.
“Mac isn't ever going to let his disability be an excuse,” King said. “He pushes himself to be better every day at practice, and he encourages others to do the same.
“If he gets beat, he never blames it on his disability. He just works harder so that it doesn't happen again.”
McGuire’s competitive nature has served him well, his coaches note.
“Mac is extremely competitive,” Alto said. “He puts in as much – or more – work as anyone on the team.
“He has a very strong desire to play well.”
Growing up with two younger brothers, McCoy and MacGill, has fueled the Cadillac senior’s competitive fire.
“It is who I am. I have two younger brothers I have to beat at everything,” McGuire said. “I have a love for competing, no matter what it is.”
The competitive drive will serve well as he heads off to K College, King said.
“Mac has been through a lot,” King said. “If he can overcome cancer, I don't see anything slowing Mac down.
“I am so proud of him and consider myself lucky for having the chance to get to coach him and get to know the amazing person he is.”
Tom Spencer is a longtime MHSAA-registered basketball and soccer official, and former softball and baseball official, and he also has coached in the northern Lower Peninsula area. He previously has written for the Saginaw News, Bay County Sports Page and Midland Daily News. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Manistee, Wexford, Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw, Iosco, Alcona, Oscoda, Crawford, Kalkaska, Grand Traverse, Benzie, Leelanau, Antrim, Otsego, Montmorency, Alpena, Presque Isle, Cheboygan, Charlevoix and Emmet counties.
PHOTOS (Top) MacKale McGuire prepares for a throw-in during a Cadillac soccer game. (Middle) McGuire sends a shot toward the green. (Below) Cadillac celebrates advancing to this season’s LPD2 Final. From left: Brandon Bailey, Davin Brown, MacKale McGuire, Ben Drabik, Noah Traviss, Harry Chipman, Conner Putman, Dan Alto and Mike McGuire. (Action photos courtesy of Paul King. Golf team photo courtesy of the Cadillac Country Club.)