Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
Petoskey to Raise Cystic Fibrosis Awareness, While Standout Rises Above It
By
Tom Spencer
Special for MHSAA.com
September 23, 2022
There are lots of ways to increase awareness for cystic fibrosis (CF) involving the color purple – or violet, as many perceive it to be – which is the color designated to represent the rare genetic disease.
Purple ribbons, necklaces, stickers, window sticker cling, key chains, wrist bans, magnets, bracelets, safety lights are among them.
To the Petoskey High School soccer program, purple has been primarily the color used to represent May as cystic fibrosis awareness month, as well as the shade of a team warm-up jersey and even an extra soccer uniform to wear during soccer tournaments.
That will change Saturday, Oct. 6, when Elks Rapids and Petoskey meet on the turf at Northmen Stadium.
When they come to Petoskey next weekend, the Elks will be in their visiting white — the same jerseys worn by the Northmen in that early-season match up. But the Northmen will not be wearing their traditional blue home jerseys. They will be wearing purple, ready to play in what has been dubbed the “Purple Game” in a drive to increase awareness for cystic fibrosis and help the approximately 30,000 Americans living with it.
The game is focused on awareness, not on any one individual living with it. The disease has robbed many people of tomorrows – progressively limiting their ability to breathe and tragically shortening life.
However, Kurtis Mainland, one of Petoskey’s leading scorers this year, is one of those living with CF. He was diagnosed at DeVos Children's Hospital with the life-threatening disease at 8 months of age.
It will be just another game for Mainland. His parents Megan and Ken will be there as well as his older brother Corbin, as he always is. Sister Mackenzie is likely to be there too. Kurtis is looking ahead to the Big North Conference title chase and another postseason run.
And unless you know Mainland or know he wears number one, you likely have no idea he lives and plays with CF.
He’s happy to help raise awareness for the disease with his purple jersey. He doesn’t let the disease control him and playing soccer is normal for him, as is watching for his parents and coach Zach Jonker. Mainland has been coached by the Jonker since he started participating in Petoskey Youth Soccer some 10 years ago, a fact bringing comfort every practice and every game to Mainland’s parents.
Jonker and Kurtis’ parents know that while the player wearing the purple jersey sporting “1” may not score against the Elks, he will do the work in the midfield that may to lead the Northmen to another victory
Mainland will be focusing on nothing more than getting the win. He’s much more concerned with the team’s battles than his own, and has no interest in drawing attention or standing out.
“The only time I really notice I have CF is in the mornings when I do my treatment, and at night when I take my medicine,” he said. “We just have to do what we did at Elk Rapids last time, and we will win it.”
Mainland has five goals and five assists as the Northmen are off to a 10-5 overall and 4-1 Big North start. They have a chance to move into first place in the conference with a rematch against Traverse City West on Monday — also at home. West is 4-0-1 and beat Petoskey 2-1 in the first meeting. A trip to Alpena, which tied West on Thursday, also will occur before the Purple Game.
He’s having a stellar senior year despite CF and having to recover from a nose surgery this summer stemming from an accident on a trampoline the year before.
For Mainland and his parents, the prescription drug Kalydeco has become a miracle of sorts. It’s helped him live a normal life, which is all he really asks. He’s well aware other teams, players and referees don’t notice he lives — and plays the game — with the life-threatening disease.
“It has allowed him to play soccer and be as active as he can be, and is without the reduced lung capacity,” his father said of the medication. “There are people that look at him on the soccer field and have no idea he has cystic fibroses.
“He has the mindset nothing will slow him down,” Dad continued. “He doesn’t want anything to slow him down including cystic fibroses.”
Mom offers another perspective shared by the Mainlands, who prefer to look at their son as having a title, rather than a disease.
“We say he has cystic fibrosis, but cystic fibrosis doesn’t have him,” she said. “It doesn’t define who he is and what he can and cannot do.”
Senior day for the Northmen is yet to come. Purple Game organizers are looking to create a greater awareness of CF, not necessarily to put the spotlight on the midfielder battling it.
“I am not one to go out and advocate for it and be very public about,” Mainland said. “I just go out like a normal kid.
“I just play the game I love, and I’ve always played like that,” he continued. “I don’t really notice it.”
Jonker, who also teaches as Petoskey High School, agrees.
“It has never hindered his ability to play and contribute,” Jonker said. “He is a fantastic young man coming from a family dedicated to serving the community.
“This is the end of his four years, so we thought we’d raise a little awareness about CF and not specifically about Kurtis’ situation.”
Ken Mainland will be doing the announcing at the Purple Game, just as he’s been doing for years. Megan will coordinate concessions.
Kurtis Mainland is an Eagle Scout as well and his badge-earning projects were improvements to the Petoskey Youth Soccer Association’s Click Road Complex, a site of some of the Northmen home games. It is also a place where Kurtis referees youth soccer matches.
He also serves in a leadership position for the Blue Crew, the student section supporters of Northmen athletic teams. He was on the ski team in middle school, and he’s a golfer during the offseason.
The Mainlands, who sees themselves as no different than any other soccer parents, will have their eyes on everything Saturday.
Onlookers say there is no way anyone with prior knowledge would know Ken is Kurtis’s father as he does his PA work. As for Megan, perhaps maybe not the case.
“We love the sport,” Megan said. “It has made him grow in so many ways.
“Once he was diagnosed — yeah it was a hit — but it was almost we were relieved because we had answers on how to help our son now,” she continued. “And, we kind of went forward and we didn’t change much.”
The Petoskey/Elk Rapids matchup will be the second meeting this season of the two soccer teams noted historically for long postseason runs. They often meet twice a year, but not in the postseason though as they are in different divisions. Petoskey won the first game this fall 1-0 in Elk Rapids, which has rebounded from a 1-5-1 start to a 9-7-1 overall record today.
Kickoff for the Purple Game is 11:30 a.m. The announcer will let the game attendees know why Petoskey is wearing the special purple jerseys.
Tom Spencer is a longtime MHSAA-registered basketball and soccer official, and former softball and baseball official, and he also has coached in the northern Lower Peninsula area. He previously has written for the Saginaw News, Bay County Sports Page and Midland Daily News. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Manistee, Wexford, Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw, Iosco, Alcona, Oscoda, Crawford, Kalkaska, Grand Traverse, Benzie, Leelanau, Antrim, Otsego, Montmorency, Alpena, Presque Isle, Cheboygan, Charlevoix and Emmet counties.
PHOTOS (Top) Petoskey’s Kurtis Mainland winds up for a shot against Gaylord this week. (Middle) Mainland, second from left, shows Petoskey’s purple jersey, with his family (from left) Ken, Megan and Corbin Mainland. (Below) Kurtis Mainland works for possession while shielding off an opponent. (Top photo courtesy of Dylan Jespersen/Gaylord Herald Times, middle courtesy of Zach Jonker and below courtesy of Drew Kochanny/Petoskey News-Review.)