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Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
![Gull Lake's Jasek Zielaskowski gains possession during his team's Semifinal win Wednesday.](/sites/default/files/2022-11/221104_BSO_2H.jpg)
Preview: Surprise-Filled Tournament Set to Culminate with Memorable Finals
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
November 4, 2022
Every MHSAA Tournament in every sport surprises us with some of the unexpected. Soccer this fall certainly has provided a few unanticipated moments to remember.
Saturday’s four Finals feature a team making its first championship game appearance, a second also seeking its first title and a third seeking its first this century, plus a Division 4 championship match pitting unranked contenders.
Division 1 - Comstock Park - Noon
Rochester Adams vs Rockford
Division 2 - Novi - Noon
Richland Gull Lake vs Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood
Division 3 - Comstock Park - 3 p.m.
Holland Christian vs Grosse Ile
Division 4 - Novi - 3 pm
Muskegon Western Michigan Christian vs Ann Arbor Greenhills
Tickets cost $11 and may be purchased online only at GoFan. All four Finals will be broadcast and available with subscription from MHSAA.tv.
Below is a glance at all eight teams taking the field, with statistics through Regionals:
Division 1
ROCHESTER ADAMS
Record/rank: 16-1-6, No. 8
Michigan Power Rating: No. 8
Coach: Josh Hickey, 14th season (157-87-55)
League finish: Fourth in Oakland Activities Association Red
Championship history: Division 1 champion 1999, two runner-up finishes.
Players to watch: Jackson Craft, jr. F (21 goals, 10 assists), Luke Rosin, sr. D (14 goals, 16 assists), Nick Hopkins, jr. D (2 goals, 2 assists), John Coon, jr. GK (0.64 goals-against average, 12 shutouts).
Outlook: Adams is returning to the Finals for the first time since finishing Division 1 runner-up in 2014, and defeated top-ranked Troy and No. 10 Salem along the way. The Troy win avenged Adams’ only loss, and the Highlanders also had draws against No. 5 Troy Athens, No. 6 Clarkston and No. 7 Berkley in league play. Striker Connor Patritto is one of six senior starters and had added eight goals and three assists entering the week, while junior midfielder Colton Janes added six goals and 11 assists.
ROCKFORD
Record/rank: 22-0-1, No. 3
Michigan Power Rating: No. 3
Coach: Tim Boelman, second season (33-6-4)
League finish: First in Ottawa-Kent Conference Red
Championship history: Has never played in an MHSAA Final.
Players to watch: Tegan Gumbs, soph. GK (0.53 goals-against average); Benjamin Battreal, sr. F (9 goals, 11 assists); Aidan Flanders, fr. F (6 goals, 8 assists); Andrew Bultman, sr. F (16 goals, 11 assists).
Outlook: The Rams are an early-September draw against No. 12 Grand Haven from a perfect record, and their run to their first Final has included wins over the Buccaneers and No. 2 Detroit Catholic Central. They’ve allowed only one goal over six postseason games, to Portage Central in the Regional Final. Senior midfielder Zenon Fedorowych had added six goals and six assists entering the week. Boelman has coached at every level of the program since first joining the staff in 2008.
Division 2
BLOOMFIELD HILLS CRANBROOK KINGSWOOD
Record/rank: 15-1-3, No. 3
Michigan Power Rating: No. 12
Coach: Chad O’Kulich, 27th season (320-71-37)
League finish: First in Detroit Catholic League AA
Championship history: Division 2 runner-up 2014.
Players to watch: Nathan Hooker, sr. M (10 goals, 8 assists); Bora Akgun, sr. GK (0.72 goals-against average). Evan Evans, sr. M (13 goals, 10 assists); Cameron Hannah, jr. M (13 goals, 5 assists).
Outlook: Cranbrook has returned to the Semifinals four times since its last championship, most recently in 2020 before taking the next step this season and returning to the Final. Hooker made the all-state third team last season and Akgun earned an honorable mention, and they with Evans and defenders Ian Chang and John Lee are senior starters. The Cranes have shut out four postseason opponents, including No. 10 Riverview in the Semifinal, and their only loss of the fall came in overtime to Division 1 No. 2 Detroit Catholic Central.
RICHLAND GULL LAKE
Record/rank: 21-3, No. 1
Michigan Power Rating: No. 1
Coach: Jeff Corstange, first season (21-3)
League finish: First in Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference
Championship history: Three MHSAA titles (most recent 2020), one runner-up finish.
Players to watch: Jasek Zielaskowski, sr. M/F (22 goals, 7 assists), Ryker Corstange, jr. F/M (19 goals, 25 assists), Tariku Klipsch, sr. M (15 goals, 7 assists), Zavier Thomas, jr. F (12 goals, 9 assists).
Outlook: After closing the regular season with a pair of losses, Gull Lake has defeated No. 2 Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern, No. 8 Parma Western and No. 9 DeWitt on the way to this weekend. Jeff Corstange took over the Gull Lake boys program this fall after previously leading the girls varsity to three Division 2 championships and a 153-20-6 record over eight seasons. Ryker Corstange earned an all-state honorable mention last season, and junior keeper Evan Kaiser made the third team. Kaiser and junior Braden Minehart have nearly split time this season and combined for 14 shutouts.
Division 3
GROSSE ILE
Record/rank: 14-7, No. 14
Michigan Power Rating: No. 18
Coach: Jon Evans, seventh season (150-15-10)
League finish: Second in Huron League.
Championship history: Three MHSAA titles (most recent 2020), two runner-up finishes.
Players to watch: Drake Rossi, sr. M (16 goals, 12 assists), Joe Molnar, sr. M (12 goals, 5 assists); Cannon Kawadri, sr. D (5 goals, 6 assists); Hayden Watson, sr. D (2 goals, 1 assist).
Outlook: Grosse Ile will be playing in its fifth-straight Division 3 Final, having won titles in 2019 and 2020 and finished runner-up in 2018 and last season. Only 8-7 at the start of the playoffs, the Red Devils have defeated No. 13 Milan and No. 2 Detroit Country Day during this run and saw Troy, Riverview and Elk Rapids as part of a strong regular-season schedule. Kawadri made the all-state first team last season, and Watson made the third.
HOLLAND CHRISTIAN
Record/rank: 19-1-3, No. 6
Michigan Power Rating: No. 2
Coach: Dave DeBoer, 10th season (157-30-22)
League finish: First in O-K Blue
Championship history: Two MHSAA titles (most recent 2003).
Players to watch: Daniel Morgan, sr. GK (0.31 goals-against average,15 shutouts); Kyle Cannon, sr. F (16 goals, 3 assists); Lucas Freriks, sr. F (10 goals, 12 assists); Michael Pierce, sr. F (8 goals, 3 assists).
Outlook: The Maroons have navigated a postseason path that’s included wins over top-ranked Grand Rapids Catholic Central, No. 9 Elk Rapids and No. 15 Fennville. That lone loss came in the team’s third game of the season, against Grand Rapids South Christian, which entered the postseason No. 3 in Division 3. Morgan made the all-state second team last year and has given up seven goals this fall while playing all but two games.
Division 4
ANN ARBOR GREENHILLS
Record/rank: 8-6-4, unranked
Michigan Power Rating: No. 39
Coach: Lucian Popescu, 13th season (161-100-26)
League finish: Fifth in Detroit Catholic League AA
Championship history: Division 4 champion 2017, four runner-up finishes.
Players to watch: Lachlan Rae, jr. M (5 goals, 4 assists); Michael Zheng, jr. F (15 goals, 5 assists); Jay Vigan, sr. M (4 goals, 11 assists); Adrian Bardwell, sr. D.
Outlook: Greenhills came out of a league that includes Division 2 finalist Cranbrook, and the Gryphons played mostly larger teams before entering the postseason at 3-6-4. That preparation clearly has paid off as Greenhills has yet to give up a goal over five playoff games, with wins over No. 11 Kalamazoo Hackett Catholic Prep, No. 6 Plymouth Christian Academy and No. 3 Lansing Christian along the way. Bardwell earned an all-state honorable mention last season, and sophomore Etienne Rouillard has a 1.2 goals-against average in net.
MUSKEGON WESTERN MICHIGAN CHRISTIAN
Record/rank: 15-8-2, unranked
Michigan Power Rating: No. 11
Coach: Ben Buursma, third season (37-23-6)
League finish: Does not play in a league.
Championship history: Seven MHSAA titles (most recent 2019), six runner-up finishes.
Players to watch: Gavin Riksen, sr. F (18 goals, 5 assists); Charlie Buursma, jr. M (8 goals, 11 assists); Ashton Leffring, sr. F (22 goals, 18 assists); Cole DeJonge, soph. M (6 goals, 9 assists).
Outlook: Western Michigan Christian rebounded from a 2-5 start to get to 10-8-2 by the end of the regular season, and then reached its 14th Final despite losing a top midfielder to injury during the run. The Warriors have won eight straight games, avenging losses to No. 13 Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian and Leland during the playoffs and defeating top-ranked Hartford in a Regional Final. Leffring made the all-state second team last season.
PHOTOS (Top) Gull Lake's Jasek Zielaskowski gains possession during his team's Semifinal win Wednesday. (Middle) Greenhills' Raj Tiller gets a foot on the ball during a Gryphons' win over Monroe St. Mary. (Top photo courtesy of The Open Shutter Photo/Cindy Corstange. Middle photo by Lei Zheng.)