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Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
![Caro’s Adelyn Moore brings the ball up court last season against Unionville-Sebewaing.](/sites/default/files/2022-12/221207_Caro_2H.jpg)
Moore Leading Caro's Current Rise, While Helping Build Program's Future
By
Paul Costanzo
Special for MHSAA.com
December 7, 2022
Adelyn Moore had done enough, even before the start of her senior year, to leave an indelible mark on the Caro girls basketball program.
But Moore isn’t satisfied now with simply winning games and rewriting the Tigers’ record books. She also wants to make sure girls who come through the program in the future have the chance to do the same thing.
“Definitely to build it up,” Moore said of her role in the program. “I know that it kind of sounds cliche, but I really like working with the little kids. This year, I’m coaching a sixth-grade girls travel team. … It’s so much fun.
“The program at Caro had never been a winning program, and I think this is me almost setting an example that it can happen at Caro. I love coaching the kids, and I can see the difference in them and how my class used to be. They want to win. They want to play sports, and play basketball.”
Moore is Caro’s all-time leading scorer, with 1,238 career points following the Tigers’ win Tuesday night against Memphis. She has nearly 750 career rebounds, which coach Jay Riley said is likely a school record, but hasn’t been tracked. If she can average 15 rebounds per game this season, she would certainly become the program’s first player to reach 1,000 points and 1,000 rebounds.
And that’s not that far-fetched. For her career, Moore has averaged 12.7 rebounds per game, including 14 per game as a sophomore.
She’s a three-time Thumb Player of the Year. She’s also been named first-team all-state in Division 3 by The Associated Press twice.
Most importantly for Moore, she’s been part of winning teams at Caro. Her freshman season, the Tigers were 18-3 and won the Greater Thumb Conference West – their first league title in 35 years. Both of the next two seasons were winning ones for the Tigers, and they’re 3-0 to start her senior year.
“Caro girls basketball had won 10 games twice in 20-some years, and she’s been part of teams that have done that in two of the last three,” Riley said. “The only other one was (the pandemic-shortened 2020-21 season). I’m confident we’re going to eclipse that this year, too. When she came in, we had a good senior group, but they all knew how special she was and that she was our best player, so they accepted different roles. She’s been part of one of the winningest stretches of Caro girls basketball in a long time.”
It’s winning that drives Moore the most. She said that she couldn’t fully celebrate breaking the school’s record for points, as it came in a loss against Kingston.
Thankfully, the school was able to bring in Lynette Coon, who had set the previous mark in the early 1980s, for the next game to present Moore with a commemorative basketball. That helped create a celebration, as did a win that night against Bad Axe.
“It felt really good to kind of feel like the hard work had paid off,” Moore said. “Then again, a better accomplishment for me would just be to get the win. It was super cool that (Coon) was there. She didn’t even know she had the record. That’s how not big women’s basketball was here. She only knew she had the record for like a week.”
Moore – a three-sport athlete who was also all-state in the shot put and discus as a junior – is committed to play next season at the University of Chicago. While she raved about the coaching staff, Moore was first attracted to the school because of its high academic standing. Moore is on track to be the valedictorian of Caro’s Class of 2023.
“It’s a very rigorous school, and I think that’s where I can get the best education,” Moore said. “Academics are huge for me. Right when I got there, the coaches were so cool. We really connected, and I fell in love with the program.”
Moore said she figures to play the 3 or 4 at Chicago, which she considers her natural positions. At 5-foot-9, she’s played everywhere for Caro, as Riley uses her to create mismatches whenever possible.
“She’s got the ball in her hands a lot – she’s primarily a guard,” Riley said. “If we get any mismatches, we’ll put her down in the post and let her take advantage. Not only can she shoot, but she has great post moves. She’s a mismatch nightmare for anybody.”
Riley said about half of Caro’s games a year ago featured opponents playing a box-and-1 defense to try and stop Moore. One team even played a triangle-and-2, with a pair of players constantly following her.
She still averaged 23.5 points per game to go along with 13.5 rebounds and 4.9 steals. She eclipsed 30 points in both of the Tigers’ first two games this season.
Moore thinks this year’s team can reach the heights her freshman team did, as many of them have been playing together since her sophomore season.
It’s a final chance for Moore to inspire the younger group of Caro girls basketball players with her play on the court, although she’s already done more than enough. Much like she has off it with her dedication to coaching a youth team, which includes multiple practices per week and Saturday games. She’s also a counselor at the Bayshore Basketball Camp during summer.
“She’s been a huge part of our success in turning this program around,” Riley said. “Which I think has sparked some of the younger girls to be more involved in basketball.”
Paul Costanzo served as a sportswriter at The Port Huron Times Herald from 2006-15, including three years as lead sportswriter, and prior to that as sports editor at the Hillsdale Daily News from 2005-06. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair, Sanilac, Huron, Tuscola, Saginaw, Bay, Arenac, Midland and Gladwin counties.
PHOTOS (Top) Caro’s Adelyn Moore brings the ball up court last season against Unionville-Sebewaing. (Middle) Moore (3) drives to the basket Friday against Otisville-LakeVille. (Photos by Kaitlin’s Klicks.)