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Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
![Goodrich’s Kayla Hairston gets up a shot during a season-opening win over Davison.](/sites/default/files/2022-12/221212_gbb_2H.png)
Breslin Bound: 2022-23 Girls Report Week 2
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
December 12, 2022
Basketball season in Michigan is played over four months, and this season – for the first time – over 22 games, or two more than in seasons past.
In many cases, those additional games will be used by teams to test themselves a few more times against less-familiar opponents, especially early, and we’ve seen a number of intriguing nonleague matchups already this season – some of last week’s best are covered below, and some of this week’s are mentioned as well.
“Breslin Bound” is powered by MI Student Aid and based on results and schedules posted for each school at MHSAA.com.
Week in Review
The countdown of last week’s five most intriguing results:
1. Detroit Renaissance 41, Wayne Memorial 39 These have been two of the state’s best regardless of division the last few seasons, and this win by the Phoenix (2-0) at the Best of Michigan Holiday Classic avenged a 61-44 loss from a year ago.
2. Portland St. Patrick 48, Fowler 40 The Shamrocks (3-1) ran their regular-season winning streak over the reigning Division 4 champion Eagles (2-2) to three to take a quick upper hand in the Central Michigan Athletic Conference.
3. Belleville 69, Detroit Country Day 61 Belleville (2-0) is looking to build on last season’s 13-8 finish, and defeating Country Day (2-2) – a Division 2 semifinalist the last two seasons – also at the Best of Michigan Holiday Classic, is a nice move in that direction.
4. Evart 42, Lake City 40 After losing to Lake City (3-1) by four and one point in last season’s meetings, and Lake City going on to the Division 3 Quarterfinals, this is a big booster for the Wildcats (3-1) as Highland Conference play begins.
5. Imlay City 51, Sandusky 48 The Spartans (5-0) opened the week with a Monday win over Bloomfield Hills Marian and closed it by edging Sandusky (3-2) to win Capac’s Harry Moore Classic.
Watch List
With an eye toward March, here are two teams in each division making sparks:
DIVISION 1
East Grand Rapids (4-1) After a series of District and/or 20-game winning seasons, East Grand Rapids cooled to 12-10 last winter. But the Pioneers are tracking among the elite again, with Friday’s 52-41 win over Hudsonville avenging an early loss from a year ago. Their only defeat was 49-41 to again-powerful Grand Rapids West Catholic, and EGR should get another strong test this weekend against Redford Westfield Prep at Aquinas College.
East Kentwood (3-0) The Falcons also came down from a series of superior seasons to finish 12-10 in 2021-22, but they’re surging again as well. They opened with a 43-40 win over Byron Center, avenging last year’s season-opening and District Final defeats, and added double-digit wins last week over Grand Ledge and Muskegon Reeths-Puffer.
DIVISION 2
Chelsea (4-0) The Bulldogs’ fast start has been one of the most impressive in the state, with double-digit victories over Parma Western, Marshall and Clarkston and a 58-52 win over Freeland. All four won at least 16 games last season, and Marshall defeated Chelsea in an early matchup. The Bulldogs did go on to finish 20-4, and next up this week is Portland – the team that eliminated Chelsea in last year’s Regional Final.
Escanaba (4-0) The Eskymos’ start doesn’t at all resemble the 0-3 beginning to last season, and hasn’t since opening night when Escanaba avenged a pair of 2021-22 losses to Marquette with a 65-50 win. Escanaba since has also avenged two more losses from last season’s 10-10 run with a 66-50 win over Negaunee, and defeated Gaylord St. Mary and McBain to win the latter’s Season Kickoff Tournament.
DIVISION 3
Cass City (3-0) The Red Hawks improved from 6-9 two seasons ago to 16-5 last winter, and a big win over Sandusky last week gives reason to believe they’re ready to take another step. Cass City lost twice to Sandusky last season, including in a Regional Semifinal, but defeated Sandusky 51-49 in overtime last Tuesday. Cass City’s opening 61-42 win over Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary remains MLS’s only loss as well.
Oscoda (3-1) The Owls have strung together five seasons of solid-to-outstanding finishes, and early on this looks like a possible number six. Oscoda opened with a 57-53 loss to Alpena, but then defeated Division 1 Bay City Central and Midland before handing Cedarville its second defeat of the season. The Owls had lost to both Bay City Central and Cedarville in going 15-7 last winter.
DIVISION 4
Ewen-Trout Creek (3-0) The Panthers were a solid 14-8 a season ago and have been among the most notable in Division 4 over the last half-decade. This season’s early run should be creating plenty of anticipation as well, as Ewen-Trout Creek have avenged last-year losses to Dollar Bay and Ironwood with wins of 20 and 16 points, respectively. The Panthers finish this week at Ontonagon, which defeated them twice last winter.
Brethren (4-0) Starting with 2018-19, the Bobcats won three, four, five and then 11 games, respectively, heading into this winter. They’re on their way to continuing that improvement with a fast start that’s included all double-digit victories – including 60-21 over Mesick, which split its meetings with Brethren last season on the way to sharing the West Michigan D League title.
Can’t-Miss Contests
Be on the lookout for results of these games coming up:
Monday – Flint Carman-Ainsworth (3-0) at Dearborn Divine Child (4-0) – These two combined for 37 wins last season and have six double-digit victories between them this winter.
Tuesday – Portland (3-1) at Chelsea (4-0) – As noted above, this is a Regional Final rematch after Portland won that playoff meeting 47-22 and also a regular-season matchup 53-36.
Wednesday – Grosse Pointe North (4-0) at Lake Fenton (3-0) – Both made Regional Finals a season ago and have impressive early wins, GPN over Country Day and Lake Fenton over Frankenmuth.
Friday – Williamston (3-1) at Haslett (4-0) – These two shared the Capital Area Activities Conference Red title last year and could be among the state-ranked in Division 2 as well this winter.
Saturday – West Bloomfield (1-1) vs. Ypsilanti Arbor Prep (1-1) at Detroit Renaissance – The reigning Division 1 and 3 champions, respectively, will meet at the Phoenix Shootout.
MHSAA.com's weekly “Breslin Bound” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Office of Postsecondary Financial Planning located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 college savings programs (MET/MESP), as well as scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.
PHOTO Goodrich’s Kayla Hairston gets up a shot during a season-opening win over Davison. (Photo by Terry Lyons.)