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Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
![St. Louis faced Ithaca in a matchup of Tri-Valley Conference 10 teams Friday; Ithaca won 61-41.](/sites/default/files/2022-12/221219_GBB_2H.png)
Breslin Bound: 2022-23 Girls Report Week 3
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
December 19, 2022
We’ve gained some early insights on local races and statewide superiority as we near the end of the first month of this girls basketball season – but perhaps the most eye-opening play will be tipping off between now and when the ball drops to ring in 2023.
We enjoyed another telling week of mostly nonleague play across the state – including a matchup of potentially the best two teams regardless of division. There’s more of that to come as these next two weeks are filled with holiday hoops events – and we’ll catch up on those when “Breslin Bound” returns the first week in January.
“Breslin Bound” is powered by MI Student Aid and based on results and schedules posted for each school at MHSAA.com.
Week in Review
The countdown of last week’s five most intriguing results:
1. Ypsilanti Arbor Prep 66, West Bloomfield 62 The most intriguing matchup of this season so far saw the reigning Division 3 champion Gators (3-1) edge the reigning title holder in Division 1 West Bloomfield (3-2) during the Arbor Prep Ice Breaker.
2. Chelsea 64, Portland 27 The Bulldogs (5-0) put together their biggest win to avenge two losses from last season against the Raiders (4-2), including their season-ender in a Regional Final.
3. Lake Fenton 51, Grosse Pointe North 33 Lake Fenton’s impressive 6-0 start has arguably its most impressive win so far, as the Norsemen (5-1) also have shown plenty of potential.
4. Hudsonville 48, Wayne Memorial 46 The Eagles (4-2) have navigated a strong nonleague schedule so far, as has Wayne (1-3) with this West Michigan Spotlight matchup its second-straight two-point defeat.
5. East Grand Rapids 61, Redford Westfield Prep 56 The Pioneers (5-1) also pulled out a close win during the “Spotlight” at Aquinas College, against another program in Westfield playing a loaded December slate.
Watch List
With an eye toward March, here are two teams in each division making sparks:
DIVISION 1
Farmington Hills Mercy (5-0) The Marlins annually are one of the top teams in Division 1, but this has been their best start since 2019-20. Along the way, they’ve handed the only losses so far to Rochester and Northville. Mercy is the reigning Detroit Catholic League Central champ and will begin an attempt at a repeat run Jan. 6 against the other likely favorite, Ann Arbor Father Gabriel Richard.
Mattawan (4-1) Last season’s 13-9 finish included a run of six wins and a District championship over Mattawan’s final seven games, and the trending upward has continued. After an opening loss to East Grand Rapids – which has quickly established itself as a top team in Division 1 – the Wildcats have won four straight.
DIVISION 2
Haslett (5-0) The Vikings have averaged 16 wins per season over the last four, and regardless of the additional two games on the schedule beginning this winter they have looked early like a contender to match or exceed that solid level of success. They’ve defeated all five opponents by double digits, including Parma Western (21-2 last season), Jackson Northwest and last week Williamston. The Northwest win was the season opener, and the Mounties haven’t lost again.
Saginaw Swan Valley (4-0) All four of Swan Valley’s opponents so far have continued to maintain records of .500 or better, with Hemlock otherwise undefeated. The Vikings finished 19-5 a year ago and second in the Tri-Valley Conference 8, with three losses (including in the Regional Final) to Frankenmuth – and those two will meet for the first time this season the first Friday of 2023.
DIVISION 3
Blissfield (7-0) The Royals have plowed through the first one-third of their schedule, winning those seven games by an average of 34 points per victory. Blissfield finished an impressive 17-6 last season, and has avenged three of those losses defeating Erie Mason 68-30 and Brooklyn Columbia Central 47-27 after losing to the latter twice last winter.
Farwell (6-0) The Eagles are building on a 15-7 finish and second place in the Jack Pine Conference from last season. Their latest win was 29-24 on Friday over Gladwin, one of the JPC teams they split with last winter, and their first matchup with reigning champion Sanford Meridian is Jan. 13 as they look to avenge three 2021-22 losses to the Mustangs that were all by six points or fewer.
DIVISION 4
Martin (5-0) The Clippers are on the right track coming off last season’s 11-12 finish. They started 5-1 last winter as well before a tough stretch, but this month’s work has already included avenging 2021-22 losses to Kalamazoo Hackett Catholic Prep and Gobles. The 39-35 Hackett win is their only single-digit victory so far.
Onaway (4-0) The Cardinals are halfway already to equaling last season’s eight wins, and they’ve done so with a pair of major highlights along the way. The 41-20 season-opening victory over Posen avenged three defeats from last winter, and Thursday’s 45-39 victory over Johannesburg-Lewiston avenged two more losses from 2021-22.
Can’t-Miss Contests
Be on the lookout for results of these games coming up:
Wednesday – Ypsilanti Arbor Prep (3-1) at Chelsea (5-0) – Both are noted above and seen as potentially dominant teams this season in Divisions 3 and 2, respectively.
Wednesday – Imlay City (7-0) at Goodrich (5-0) – Both will be facing potentially their strongest early test, although Imlay City also has a tough one against Frankenmuth tonight.
Dec. 29 – St. Ignace (4-0) vs. Ann Arbor Huron (3-2) at Redford Westfield Prep – This Motor City Roundball Classic matchup provides a solid challenge for both, especially the Division 4 Saints as they play through a string of larger opponents.
Dec. 29 – Detroit Country Day (3-2) vs. Detroit Renaissance (3-0) at Westfield Prep – This is another Motor City matchup, and will tip off barely 24 hours after Country Day plays Rockford at the same event.
Dec. 30 – Lake Fenton (6-0) at Detroit Cass Tech (3-0) – Both have games to play before this meeting, but both also are pushing for the opportunity to enter 2023 undefeated.
MHSAA.com's weekly “Breslin Bound” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Office of Postsecondary Financial Planning located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 college savings programs (MET/MESP), as well as scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.
PHOTO St. Louis faced Ithaca in a matchup of Tri-Valley Conference 10 teams Friday; Ithaca won 61-41. (Click for more from High School Sports Scene.)