Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
Manistee Catholic Central's Excellence Bolstered by Experience
By
Tom Spencer
Special for MHSAA.com
January 6, 2023
Playing three guards happens probably most at the high school level, but still may be considered an uncommon lineup.
And it’s unlikely more than one Michigan high school girls basketball team can boast of having all three guards on the court playing at least their fifth seasons at the varsity level.
Manistee Catholic Central can. And these guards, playing more like a family as some say, are ready to undo the feeling of last year’s season-ending loss to Brethren in the District Semifinal.
Due to the school’s tiny enrollment, MCC is allowed under MHSAA rules to have seventh and eighth graders on the roster as they’ve had for some time. So when the Sabres gather around the seniors including Leah Stickney, Kaylyn Johnson, Emily Miller, Abbey Logan and Ashley VanAelst during their pregame warm-up, they fire up around a lot of experience.
MCC went 14-5 last year and shared the West Michigan D League championship. They’re off to a 7-2 start as they host Walkerville tonight. Both losses this season were by just one point.
VanAelst is one of the guards and captains in the starting lineup. She joined the Sabres late in her in eighth grade season.
“I’ve grown up with this team,” VanAelst said. “They have been (there) for me throughout everything.
“I see them as the best family I could ever have,” she continued. “I love to call them my family.”
Being so much a part of each other’s lives, including school days, has bode well for the Sabres, VanAelst said.
“We have such a good bonding aspect,” she said. “When we’re on the court, we forget about all of our troubles and we come together.
“I like when we’re on the court, we’re all one.”
Stickney, a 5-foot-5 senior guard, is the team’s leading rebounder. She regularly starts in the three-guard formation with VanAelst and junior Grace Kidd. Johnson, the team’s leading scorer at 12.2 points per game, starts in the post.
Stickney, Johnson, Kidd, and junior Elizabeth Logan all played on the varsity team prior to entering the high school. The experienced lineup has coach Todd Erickson looking for an extended postseason run.
“They got the court time over the year to play at this level,” Erickson said. “We’ve been waiting for this team to come into their own.
“We’re not where we think we can be yet.”
The Sabres are moving south to Walkerville to start the postseason this year. They will vie for the District title there with Walkerville, Baldwin, Mason County Eastern, McBain Northern Michigan Christian and Pentwater.
MCC picked up a 44-18 win this week over Pentwater, a potential District opponent.
Summer camps in Petoskey and Gaylord, along with a summer YMCA league in Traverse City, helped the Sabres prepare for this season. VanAelst was one of the players leading the charge.
“I wanted to do something great,” VanAelst said. “I just really wanted to make myself better and be a leader out on the court and help my teammates along the way.
“It was more a team building aspect and how we can work together and become a better team,” she continued. “Instead of working on ourselves individually, we worked together.”
Over the years, Erickson’s teams have won a dozen District championships and three Regionals. His Sabers advanced to the Semifinals in 1999 before falling to eventual Class D champion Portland St. Patrick. The Sabres had only eight players on that roster.
Erickson took over the Sabers girls program during the middle of the 1992 season when the head coach at the time suddenly stepped down. Erickson coached both varsity and JV for the remainder of the year.
He left Manistee Catholic briefly to coach Manistee High for two seasons, posting a combined 45-3 record there with two District titles and a Regional championship. He later returned to Catholic Central after taking a year off.
Last winter, his players and the school honored Erickson for reaching the 400-win milestone.
With this postseason in mind, Erickson now has his team working on rebounding and free throw shooting.
“Our rebounding has to change,” Erickson. “When you’ve got three guards leading your rebounding, we have a problem.
“There is no reason for a 5-foot-5 guard leading your rebounding.”
Erickson noted his players responded to the rebounding focus in their latest win. And, he loves the growth in his guards.
“All three of those guards — Leah, Ashley and Grace — the have learned to play really well together,” he said. “Every time they play, they are getting stronger and stronger to each other.
“They look out for each other on the floor,” he went on. “They always know where the other two are.”
The Sabres also improved their free throw shooting in the win over Pentwater, especially Johnson.
“Kaylin took it to heart,” Erickson said. “She turned around to me at the end and she goes, ‘Coach, I was 4 for 4 at the free throw line.’
“I said, ‘That’s where you should be, 3-for-4 or 4-for-4.’”
Erickson’s coaching has spanned five decades, and he’s not the only coach in his family. His wife Jan has done some coaching. His daughters, Kelly and Katie, currently serve as assistant coaches for St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic and Traverse City St. Francis, respectively.
The Sabres’ success has not gone unnoticed. Among those taking note is Mike Kanitz, who serves now as assistant coach at St. Francis with Katie Erickson.
Kanitz coached against Manistee Catholic when he was the head coach at Traverse City Christian. The Gladiators also saw the Sabres at camp and the YMCA league this summer.
“Coach (Todd) Erickson takes the talent that he has each year and makes them more talented,” Kanitz said. “He does a great job of developing teams.
“His teams are always competitive.”
Tom Spencer is a longtime MHSAA-registered basketball and soccer official, and former softball and baseball official, and he also has coached in the northern Lower Peninsula area. He previously has written for the Saginaw News, Bay County Sports Page and Midland Daily News. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Manistee, Wexford, Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw, Iosco, Alcona, Oscoda, Crawford, Kalkaska, Grand Traverse, Benzie, Leelanau, Antrim, Otsego, Montmorency, Alpena, Presque Isle, Cheboygan, Charlevoix and Emmet counties.
PHOTOS (Top) Manistee Catholic Central’s Kaylyn Johnson lines up for a free throw. (Middle) MCC coach Todd Erickson talks things over with Leah Stickney (3). (Below) Ashley VanAelst (11) considers her options on offense against Central Lake. (Photos by Mitch Vosburg/Manistee News Advocate.)