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Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
![Otsego’s Hannah Fitzpatrick (23) gets to the lane in her team’s 44-42 overtime win over Plainwell.](/sites/default/files/2023-01/230116_gbb_2H4.jpg)
Breslin Bound: 2022-23 Girls Report Week 7
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
January 16, 2023
We’ve officially reached the midpoint of another girls basketball season, and with that comes many more eyeballs turned toward the MHSAA’s Michigan Power Ratings used to seed the top two teams in each District and place them on opposite sides of the bracket.
An explanation of how MPR is calculated and full lists for all four divisions can be found clicking here. We also reference MPR much more below than we have over the first six weeks of the season, since every game added into the equation makes MPR a more accurate representation of what teams are accomplishing this winter, and at this point many teams have played nearly half their regular-season schedules.
“Breslin Bound” is powered by MI Student Aid and based on results and schedules posted for each school at MHSAA.com.
Week in Review
The countdown of last week’s five most intriguing results:
1. Traverse City Central 41, Maple City Glen Lake 29 The Trojans (9-1) are off to a scorching start, and with this victory ended Glen Lake’s 41-game regular-season winning streak.
2. Lake Fenton 45, Ypsilanti Arbor Prep 39 The Blue Devils (12-0) opened last week by downing the reigning Division 3 champion Gators (5-4).
3. Escanaba 50, Hancock 49 Potentially the two best teams in a strong Upper Peninsula this winter matched up that way, with the Division 2 Eskymos moving to 11-0 and Division 3 Hancock to 9-1.
4. Jackson Northwest 50, Coldwater 46 By handing Coldwater (9-1) its first defeat, Northwest (9-1) also moved into first place alone in the Interstate 8 Athletic Conference.
5. Grand Rapids Christian 46, East Grand Rapids 45 These two are tied for only third in a strong Ottawa-Kent Conference White, in part because the Eagles (6-3) handed EGR (8-2) its first league loss.
Watch List
With an eye toward March, here are two teams in each division making sparks:
DIVISION 1
Grand Blanc (6-3) After opening this season with three defeats to top competition (Hartland, Frankenmuth and Wayne Memorial), Grand Blanc hasn’t lost since and sits No. 5 in Division 1 MPR with all nine of its games against teams with winning records. Among those wins, the Bobcats handed Blissfield its only loss, and Holt just its second.
Holland West Ottawa (11-0) The Panthers are up to No. 4 in Division 1 MPR with a 55-51 overtime win over reigning O-K Red champion Hudsonville a major highlight last week. They also handed O-K Green co-leader Muskegon Mona Shores a 45-39 defeat in early December and can assert themselves as the best in the Red with matchups against Rockford and East Kentwood coming up over the next two weeks.
DIVISION 2
North Branch (9-1) The Broncos are a two-point December loss to Division 1 Oxford from a perfect start, and only two other games have been close despite playing six teams with winning records. North Branch opened with an impressive 52-35 win over Marysville and closed last week defeating Armada after splitting with the Tigers last season. The Broncos also have avenged a pair of last-season losses to Yale and a third to Millington.
Vicksburg (10-0) The Bulldogs began accelerating toward this kind of success in finishing 14-8 last season, and they made a statement immediately this winter with a 45-31 win over reigning Wolverine Conference champion Otsego on Dec. 2 after losing twice to the Bulldogs last season. Actually, they made a statement even before that, handing Buchanan what remains the Bucks’ only defeat, 47-42 in the season opener – which also remains Vicksburg’s only single-digit game.
DIVISION 3
Buchanan (8-1) As noted above, Buchanan opened with a defeat to Vicksburg but hasn’t lost since to move up to No. 4 in Division 3 MPR. The Bucks also have the first-half lead in the first-year Lakeland Conference, a game ahead of longtime rival Niles Brandywine after handing Brandywine a 49-45 overtime loss Dec. 15. No other opponent during the winning streak has gotten closer than 18 points.
Calumet (8-1) Coming off three straight seasons with at least 19 wins, Calumet is used to being in the mix and no surprise this time with its only loss to Hancock. Impressive wins over Negaunee and Baraga have followed, but these next two weeks should be especially telling with trips to Houghton, Gwinn and Marquette followed up by home games against Escanaba and Hancock again. The Copper Kings’ only regular-season losses last year were in splits with the Gremlins and Eskymos.
DIVISION 4
Kingston (9-0) The Cardinals entered this season a combined 75-12 over their last four, with that just a sample of consistent high-level success stretching more than a decade – and they’re adding to that impressively again. A 66-60 double-overtime win over Armada to finish the season’s first week was their only single-digit game so far, despite seven wins total over teams .500 or better and five over teams that have won at least seven games – easily explaining Kingston’s top rank in Division 4 MPR.
Maple City Glen Lake (8-1) The loss to Division 1 Traverse City Central (see above) should only strengthen Glen Lake’s standing as one of the best in Division 4, as the Lakers remain No. 2 in Division 4 MPR with double-digit wins over the rest of their opponents including three more with at least seven wins. A Feb. 1 matchup with Division 3 Traverse City St. Francis should be a gem, and expectations are high again after Glen Lake’s lone loss last season came to Arbor Prep in a Division 4 Semifinal.
Can’t-Miss Contests
Be on the lookout for results of these games coming up:
Tuesday – DeWitt (9-0) at Haslett (10-0) – These rivals have split their last two, with DeWitt winning last year’s meeting 24-22.
Tuesday – Petersburg Summerfield (11-1) at Morenci (10-0) – This pair is tied for first in the Tri-County Conference with the only loss between them Summerfield’s to Division 2 Ida.
Thursday – North Farmington (11-0) at Oxford (10-1) – The co-leaders in the Oakland Activities Association White face off for the first of two meetings.
Friday – Lake Fenton (12-0) at Goodrich (10-0) – The co-leaders in the Flint Metro League Stars also are ranked Nos. 4 and 11, respectively, in statewide Division 2 MPR.
Friday – Rockford (9-1) at Holland West Ottawa (11-0) – As noted above, these two have the early lead in the O-K Red, and Rockford also is No. 1 in Division 1 MPR with West Ottawa No. 4.
MHSAA.com's weekly “Breslin Bound” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Office of Postsecondary Financial Planning located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 college savings programs (MET/MESP), as well as scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.
PHOTOS (Top) Otsego’s Hannah Fitzpatrick (23) gets to the lane in her team’s 44-42 overtime win over Plainwell. (Middle) Traverse City Central’s Jakiah Brumfield (2) splits two defenders on her way to scoring in the Trojans' 41-29 win over previously-undefeated Glen Lake last week. (Photos by Gary Shook and Rick Sack, respectively.)