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Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
![Marquette's Siena Lingle (21) attempts to block a shot by Calumet's Laina Kariniemi (14) during the Copper Kings' 50-44 win Jan. 23.](/sites/default/files/2023-01/230130_gbb_2H.png)
Breslin Bound: 2022-23 Girls Report Week 9
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
January 30, 2023
We are down to the final four weeks of this MHSAA girls basketball season. And while the schedule is full of an increasing number of must-see games across the state, all of them fit into some serious crunching of numbers going on behind the scenes at our East Lansing office.
Seeding the top two teams in every District requires thousands of data points – and a season-long process of collecting them all. We’re sitting at 694 member girls varsity teams this winter, and we’ve nearly completed a process of checking their schedules one by one – about a 23-hour task by itself to make sure all scheduled games are showing, league standings are set up correctly, etc.
Additionally, daily we’re sorting through disputed scores, changes to schedules because of weather or teams that have discontinued their seasons, and other adjustments. But we’re always striving for perfection – for just scores alone, we’ve been able to collect more than 98 percent from an estimated 4,500 games that have been played so far this winter. We’ll be working to track down the rest before District pairings are announced Jan. 19. And then we’ll finish the same process for boys schedules and results.
“Breslin Bound” is powered by MI Student Aid and based on results and schedules posted for each school at MHSAA.com.
Week in Review
The countdown of last week’s five most intriguing results:
1. Ann Arbor Father Gabriel Richard 33, Farmington Hills Mercy 26 The Irish (12-3) broke reigning Detroit Catholic League Central champion Mercy’s 12-game league winning streak, handing Mercy its first defeat of the season and also avenging a 46-33 loss to the Marlins (13-1) only three weeks earlier.
2. Saline 41, Temperance Bedford 22 The Hornets (13-2) not only became the last undefeated team in Southeastern Conference Red play, but earned it by handing Bedford (13-1) its first defeat overall.
3. Traverse City St. Francis 54, Harbor Springs 31 The Gladiators (11-1) avenged their lone loss and in the process joined Elk Rapids in a tie atop the Lake Michigan Conference standings, with Harbor Springs (12-2) half a game back.
4. Byron Center 48, East Grand Rapids 35 The Ottawa-Kent Conference White is one of the top leagues in the state, and Byron Center (12-3) sits atop the standings after defeating third-place EGR (11-4) and then fourth-place Lowell during a big week.
5. Detroit Renaissance 50, Detroit Cass Tech 46 The undefeated Phoenix (14-0) moved into first place alone in the Detroit Public School League Blue, with one more league game to play, as Cass (6-6) fell a game back.
Watch List
With an eye toward March, here are two teams in each division making sparks:
DIVISION 1
Byron Center (12-3) As noted above, Byron Center had a massive week heading into Tuesday’s rematch with O-K White second-place Grand Rapids Christian. The Bulldogs won the first meeting with the Eagles 54-34 on Dec. 15, hence their one-game lead atop the league standings. That victory also started a 10-game winning streak after Byron Center took early losses from O-K Red contenders East Kentwood, Rockford and Hudsonville. Total, the Bulldogs have won 41 straight league games in the O-K White and before that Green, going back five seasons.
Grosse Pointe North (12-2) The Norsemen can clinch a share of the Macomb Area Conference Red championship against Port Huron on Tuesday, which would run their league title streak to three seasons. North’s only losses this winter were to still-undefeated Lake Fenton and Red second-place Utica Eisenhower, the latter by a point in their second meeting Jan. 19. Seven of GPN’s 12 wins have come against teams that would be .500 or better if not for losing (once, or twice) to North.
DIVISION 2
Grand Rapids West Catholic (14-0) The reigning Division 2 runner-up has won 35 of its last 36 games and avenged last season’s lone regular-season loss, defeating Rockford this time 61-54 to win the Cornerstone University Holiday Tournament Gold championship. West Catholic’s 71-32 win over former league co-leader Hamilton last week put the Falcons in first alone in the O-K Blue, and only Division 1 contenders Hudsonville and East Grand Rapids have joined Rockford in coming within single digits of catching them.
Wixom St. Catherine (12-1) The Stars have clinched a share of the Catholic League AA championship, after sharing it with Royal Oak Shrine Catholic last season. St. Catherine defeated Shrine 54-35 on Jan. 13 and will face the Knights again Friday to close the league schedule. The only loss this winter came to Detroit Country Day on Dec. 6, and only 11-win Flint Powers Catholic has come within single digits since that lone defeat.
DIVISION 3
Hancock (11-1) In a loaded Western Peninsula Athletic Conference, Hancock could emerge as the best starting tonight with the second of two meetings against Calumet (10-2), and with two against Houghton (12-1) coming up as well. The 45-39 win over Calumet on Dec. 13 was among Hancock’s best victories, and the lone loss came Jan. 13 to still-undefeated Escanaba, 50-49. The Bulldogs tied for second in the West-PAC West last season before losing their District opener to Ishpeming, but they’ve defeated Ishpeming 42-27 this winter and face the Hematites again Wednesday.
Traverse City St. Francis (11-1) Coming off avenging that lone loss to Harbor Springs (see above), St. Francis would seem to have the upper hand in the Lake Michigan Conference even with Elk Rapids also having just one league loss – they meet again Feb. 9, and St. Francis won the first matchup 43-26 on Jan. 13. The Gladiators are seeking their first league title since 2017-18 and annually are in the hunt; they’ve also had their last three seasons ended with playoff losses to Maple City Glen Lake, which they see Wednesday for the first time this winter.
DIVISION 4
Cedarville/DeTour (11-2) The Islanders lead the Eastern Upper Peninsula Athletic Conference and haven’t lost for more than a month, their defeats coming to still-unbeaten Mackinaw City and then Oscoda three days later in early December. It’s an impressive turnaround from last season’s 8-12 finish, and has included six victories against teams .500 or better and five against opponents with at least eight wins. A Feb. 14 home game against St. Ignace will provide another big opportunity.
Indian River Inland Lakes (10-4) An 0-2 start to this season is becoming a memory, especially after Inland Lakes avenged the second of those defeats – by 17 to Johannesburg-Lewiston – with a 55-51 win last week. The only other losses came to Mackinaw City at the Comets’ Christmas Tournament, and to Ski Valley Conference leader Gaylord St. Mary two weeks ago. The Bulldogs rebounded from their tough start in December with wins over Bellaire and Cheboygan that avenged 2021-22 losses.
Can’t-Miss Contests
Be on the lookout for results of these games coming up:
Tuesday – DeWitt (12-1) at Holt (12-2) – The co-leaders in the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue face off for the first of two meetings this season after the teams split a year ago.
Wednesday – Maple City Glen Lake (11-2) at Traverse City St. Francis (11-1) – In addition to those three playoff wins over St. Francis the last three seasons, Glen Lake is looking to extend a five-game regular-season winning streak against the Gladiators.
Thursday – Buchanan (12-1) at Niles Brandywine (10-1) – Buchanan is atop the Lakeland Conference standings and Brandywine is second because of the Bucks’ 49-45 overtime win when they met the first time Dec. 15.
Friday – Detroit Edison (10-2) at Farmington Hills Mercy (13-1) – Edison’s only defeats this season were to Illinois teams in early December, and only West Bloomfield last winter has handed the Pioneers an in-state loss over the last five seasons.
Friday – Escanaba (13-0) at Houghton (12-1) – The Eskymos will take their perfect record to the Keweenaw Peninsula in what could possibly be a preview of a Division 2 District Final as well.
MHSAA.com's weekly “Breslin Bound” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Office of Postsecondary Financial Planning located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 college savings programs (MET/MESP), as well as scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.
PHOTOS (Top) Marquette's Siena Lingle (21) attempts to block a shot by Calumet's Laina Kariniemi (14) during the Copper Kings' 50-44 win Jan. 23. (Middle) Haslett's Maddie Fant (5) and Abigail Brooks (24) defend during the Vikings' 52-32 win over Brighton on Saturday. (Top photo by Cara Kamps. Middle photo by High School Sports Scene.)