Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
Fearful Start Behind Her, Abnet Continuing to Amaze for Undefeated Vicksburg
By
Pam Shebest
Special for MHSAA.com
February 7, 2023
VICKSBURG – It is not often that a mother calls her child’s concussion a blessing, but it certainly was for Vicksburg senior Tristin Abnet.
The concussion, sustained her freshman year during a volleyball game, led to tests which led to the discovery of a brain tumor.
Luckily, the tumor was benign and, after the surgery and a long recovery, Abnet is one of two seniors on the undefeated girls basketball team that has set a program record this winter for most wins in a season at 16 and counting, eclipsing the previous mark of 15.
And when it comes to Abnet’s journey over the last three years, Bulldogs coach Tim Kirby said it’s been nothing short of amazing.
After taking a hit during a volleyball game, “I actually got a concussion and I ended up with a headache for about a month or so,” Abnet said.
“I didn’t think too much of it because I always got injuries and always got over them. But this one scared me a little bit.”
It was not until she was playing in a college exposure softball tournament that November that she realized something more was going on.
“Tristin was an up-and-coming softball athlete throughout the country,” her dad, Cheyenne, said. “She won many national championships up to her freshman year (in travel softball).
“We were playing at a college exposure tournament, and she was the youngest on the team. The third day (of the tournament) she started crying because her headache was so bad. She asked me if I would take her out.”
Her mother, Kristina, added, “That was so unlike T. She would battle through anything.”
At that moment, they knew something was terribly wrong.
“She was only making it through maybe two days of school every week because of headaches,” Kristina said. “We took her to her family doctor (in November), and they weren’t comfortable with everything.
“Her doctor (Rosa Maira) said she felt it necessary to do further imaging. Had she not, we’d still never know.”
The wait during the imaging dragged on, causing a bit of concern for her parents.
“They kept her for so long, and I said there’s something wrong – Mother’s intuition,” Kristina said.
“Then they came out and took us back and showed us what they found and asked to do further testing. Everything snowballed after that.”
Finding out about the tumor, “My world crashed,” Kristina said, with tears in her eyes. “(In 2011) I had a lot of tumors, desmoid tumors, and to think of the battle I went through and the fact that it was on her brain, it was tough.”
In March, doctors performed a biopsy, finding Tristin’s tumor was a low-grade glioma, which is benign.
“We all lost it that day,” Kristina said. “We had our entire family there for her first surgery in March. We left (the hospital) three days later, and then COVID hit.”
With classes online, “She ended up not having to go back to school that year, so that was a blessing too.”
The surgery to remove the tumor was scheduled for August 2020, and during the months between the biopsy and surgery, Tristin said, “I didn’t want to freak myself out because I knew it was coming, I knew what was going to happen and there was nothing I could do about it.”
Her dad said Tristin “never cried in front of me from the day at the tournament all the way to the day of her surgery.
“She was so, so strong, and she was just a little girl. I never saw a tear until they were ready to wheel her away for the surgery.”
One worry for Tristin was the chance of losing her hair to facilitate the craniotomy.
“First they told me they were going to shave my head halfway back and then, as I was getting wheeled back, there were two girl nurses talking about what they were going to do with my hair, so I knew they weren’t going to completely shave my head,” Abnet said.
The surgery lasted 13 hours at Helen DeVos Children’s Hospital in Grand Rapids, and three days later she was headed home to her bedroom decorated by friends and family.
At first, Tristin was allowed no competition for six months after the surgery. But after a CT scan, doctors added another two months before giving her the OK to play.
“There are (three) metal plates there, that’s why she could not go back to sports for such a long time because that plate had to heal,” her dad said.
Although she could not play basketball her sophomore year, she found a way to stay involved: She became the varsity team manager.
“As a sophomore she literally was here for every practice and every game, even though she wasn’t allowed to participate,” Kirby said.
“At the end of the season, her team unanimously voted her “best teammate” on the entire team, and she couldn’t play. I think that’s a testament to the kind of person she is and the impact she had on the team.”
After taking a year off and after major surgery, Abnet had a lot of catching up to do, both physically and mentally, during her junior year, her coach said.
“Last year, you just wanted to make sure you kept her safe,” Kirby noted. “This year, I haven’t worried about it as much because she’s been through it and we’re all more comfortable with it.
“She knows what her limitations are. Last year, I was a little more leery about it.”
Tristin worked her way back into shape.
“She goes to the gym four days a week,” her mom said. “She’s literally built up about 10 pounds of muscle.
“She lost 35 pounds after her brain surgery. She went from being a fit athlete to being very tiny, very fragile.”
Those first few games back last year were also nail-biters.
“I was absolutely terrified,” her mom said. “One hit to her head and her forehead could concave.”
They were a bit daunting for Tristin as well.
“I was super, super nervous because I didn’t want to get hit in the head and have to go through that surgery again,” she said.
Her dad added that the surgery changed her.
“She’s not the athlete she was four years ago; she’s not, and that’s fine,” Cheyenne said. “It took me a while as Dad, as (softball) coach, to understand that. I’m proud of her.”
Through it all, she never let her grades suffer and carries a 4.13 GPA.
She is also called the team “mom,” taking snacks to road games and putting out reminders every day in the team’s group chat.
“She inspires me every single day,” Kirby said. “When you’re a young team, you have to have that leadership. She’s a great leader for us. She bonds everybody together.”
That bonding is one thing that is so special about the Bulldogs, Kirby said.
“They work hard every day and they share the basketball like nobody I’ve ever seen before,” he explained. “Every night, someone else leads us in scoring.
“I’ve had seven different girls lead us in scoring this year, and I don’t have anyone averaging 10 points a game right now.”
Amanda Laugher joins Abnet as the team’s seniors. The young roster also includes juniors Brooklynn Ringler, Emma Steele and Maddison Diekman and sophomores Scarlett Hosner, Kendra Cooley, Emily Zemitans, Makayla Allen and Hannah Devries.
As for the school record, that was not the team’s goal at the beginning of the season.
“Our goal this year is to win the (Wolverine) Conference championship,” Kirby said. “Vicksburg has never won a conference championship in girls basketball. That was our No. 1 goal this year.
“We host our District this year, so we’re hoping maybe to follow up a conference championship with a District championship. You get to that point, and it’s all gravy.”
Pam Shebest served as a sportswriter at the Kalamazoo Gazette from 1985-2009 after 11 years part-time with the Gazette while teaching French and English at White Pigeon High School. She can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Calhoun, Kalamazoo and Van Buren counties.
PHOTOS (Top) Vicksburg’s Tristin Abnet is glad to be back on the court, and intense going to the basket. (2) Stitches stretched across Abnet’s scalp as three metal plates and a hinge were applied to her skull. (3) Abnet is surrounded by support including parents Cheyenne, left, and Kristina, and coach Tim Kirby. (4) Abnet launches a jumper during a game with Stevensville Lakeshore. (Photos courtesy of the Abnet family.)