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Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
![Carman-Ainsworth’s Armoni Strozier (15) gets a hand on a shot during a District win over Flushing.](/sites/default/files/2023-03/230314_gbb_2H.png)
Breslin Bound: 2022-23 Girls Quarterfinal Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
March 14, 2023
By the end of tonight, we’ll know which 16 girls basketball teams are Breslin Bound this weekend.
Below is a glance at all 16 Quarterfinals across four divisions, with all games tipping off today at 7 p.m. unless noted.
We’ll come back Thursday with more detailed looks at the teams making the trip to East Lansing.
“Breslin Bound” is powered by MI Student Aid.
Division 1
Salem (20-6) vs. Riverview (23-3) at Ypsilanti Lincoln
Riverview is playing in its first Quarterfinal, and Salem its first since 1990. The Rocks are paced by junior Madison Morson (22.4 points, 7.6 rebounds per game). Seniors Elyssa Kincaid (16.8 ppg) and Cadence Kaminske (14.7 ppg) lead Riverview, which won both of its Regional games by a point.
Flint Carman-Ainsworth (23-0) vs. West Bloomfield (24-2) at Bay City Central
The Cavaliers bring a perfect record and five players averaging double-digit scoring into this meeting with the reigning Division 1 champion. Senior Armonie Smith and junior Ravyn Guy lead at 15 ppg, and senior DeAndrea’ Smith provides 12.6 points, 12 rebounds and five assists per contest. West Bloomfield has three starters back from its title-winning lineup – junior twins Summer Davis (19.1 ppg, 74 3-pointers) and Indya Davis (15.6 ppg, 8.7 rpg) and senior Sydney Hendrix (10.6 ppg).
Detroit Renaissance (22-1) vs. Grosse Pointe North (23-2) at University of Detroit Mercy
The Phoenix are a one-point overtime loss to Ann Arbor Father Gabriel Richard from perfection this winter and defeated Farmington Hills Mercy (22-4) to reach this week. North’s only losses were to Lake Fenton and Utica Eisenhower, the latter by a point. Three players average double-digit scoring for the Norsemen, led by senior Annabel Ayrault at 14 ppg. Junior Christian Sanders (14.1 ppg) leads four Renaissance players averaging at least 11 points per contest.
Rockford (25-1) vs. Holt (22-4) at Kalamazoo Loy Norrix
The Rams were a three-point Semifinal loss to West Bloomfield from playing for last year’s Division 1 title, and their only loss this time was to still-undefeated Grand Rapids West Catholic. Sophomore Anna Wypych (14.2 ppg) is the leading scorer for a team that’s connected on 231 3-pointers. Holt is coached by Tori Brooks, who made the Finals as a player with DeWitt in 2009 and East Lansing in 2008, and the Rams are keyed by senior Janae Tyler (18.1 ppg, 12.2 rpg).
Division 2
Houghton (21-5) vs. Frankenmuth (23-2) at Gaylord, 5 p.m.
The Gremlins have defeated league champions two of their last three games to reach this week and feature for senior starters including leading scorer Meghan Trewhella (16.1 ppg). Frankenmuth earned its second-straight Regional title and has won 11 straight games, with 6-foot-1 Lexi Boyke (13 ppg, 8.5 rpg) the lone senior in the Eagles’ starting lineup.
Warren Regina (10-12) vs. Goodrich (23-3) at University of Detroit Mercy, 5:30 p.m.
Regina is playing in its first Quarterfinal since 2011 after handing Warren Fitzgerald its lone loss 52-19 in the Regional Final. Junior Maddy Mlynarek (6.2 ppg, 6.3 rpg) is the leading scorer and rebounder for a balanced lineup. Goodrich built on its one-point win over rival Lake Fenton in the District Final with a triple-overtime victory over Detroit Country Day in the Regional championship game. Senior Riley Place leads at 13.2 ppg.
Grand Rapids West Catholic (25-0) vs. Holland Christian (19-7) at Hopkins
Last season’s Division 2 runner-up West Catholic hasn’t lost since, led by senior Miss Basketball Award finalist Cadence Dykstra (13.8 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 5.0 apg). The Falcons defeated Holland Christian by 17 and 32 during the regular season. The Maroons won their first Regional title since 2009, and sophomore Camryn VandenBosch (11.5 ppg) leads four starters averaging at least six points per game.
Lansing Catholic (21-5) vs. Redford Westfield Prep (16-8) at Chelsea
Both of these teams have earned stunning victories this postseason, Westfield over reigning Division 2 champion Detroit Edison 57-54 in the Regional Final and Lansing Catholic handing second and final losses to Haslett in the District and Chelsea in the Regional. Senior guard Shamya Reid is Westfield’s leading scorer at 15.5 ppg, while junior twins Anna and Leah Richards pace the Cougars at 12.2 and 10.3 ppg, respectively.
Division 3
Sandusky (23-3) vs. Madison Heights Bishop Foley (20-6) at West Bloomfield
Sandusky earned its first Regional championship since 1999, avenging an overtime regular-season loss to Cass City to advance. Senior Morgan Taege averages 12.6 ppg with 50 3-pointers. Bishop Foley has won three straight Regional championships and this time is led by junior Ryan Moorer (11.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg) and four seniors filling out the rest of the starting lineup.
Blissfield (25-1) vs. Ovid-Elsie (22-4) at Springport
The Royals defeated reigning Division 3 champion Ypsilanti Arbor Prep 50-38 in a Regional Final to return to the season’s final week. Five players average between 5.9 and 11 ppg, with junior Avery Collins that leading scorer and also pace-setter with 4.5 assists and four steals per contest. Ovid-Elsie won its first Regional title since 1984 and starts four juniors including Ava Bates, who leads at 12.6 points, 5.7 rpg and 1.4 blocks per game.
Elk Rapids (21-3) vs. Hemlock (23-3) at Gaylord
Elk Rapids will play in its first Quarterfinal since 1993, with wins over Harbor Springs and Negaunee highlighting the Elks’ tournament path. Junior Kendall Standfest has been a force averaging 16.7 ppg and 11.2 rpg. Hemlock has won 14 straight and follows a pair of big-time shooters in seniors Regan Finkbeiner (17.1 ppg, 60 3-pointers) and Chloe Watson (14.1 ppg, 71 3-pointers).
Hart (23-3) vs. Buchanan (23-1) at Bangor
Hart avenged a regular-season loss to 2022 Division 3 runner-up Kent City to win its first Regional championship, with leading scorers Abby Hicks (14.5 ppg) and Addi Hovey (16.4 ppg) surrounded by three seniors in the starting lineup. Buchanan’s first Quarterfinal trip since 2001 has been paced by 6-4 Miss Basketball finalist Faith Carson at 20.4 points and 12.4 rebounds per game. The Bucks have won 23 straight since falling to Vicksburg in their season opener.
Division 4
Baraga (21-5) vs. Mackinaw City (25-1)
Baraga is back after making the Division 4 Semifinals last season, in part thanks to avenging regular-season losses to Lake Linden-Hubbell and Ewen-Trout Creek during the playoffs. Corina Jahfetson is among the standouts again, this time with a team-leading 18 ppg and 90 3-pointers. Mackinaw City broke through with its first Regional title, with seniors Madison Smith (16.1 ppg, 10 rpg) and Marlie Pastula (15.8) leading four players averaging double-digit scoring.
Fowler (19-7) vs. Kingston (25-1)
The Eagles have won the last two Division 4 championships and prepped this time with another strong schedule; their only Division 4 loss was to Portland St. Patrick and was avenged twice. Senior Emma Riley has plenty of Breslin experience and leads at 15.1 ppg. Kingston’s lone loss came to Division 2 Saginaw Swan Valley, and nine of the team’s last 10 wins were over opponents with winning records. Junior Delaney St. George paces the Cardinals at 15.8 ppg with 91 3-pointers.
Maple City Glen Lake (23-2) vs. St. Charles (24-2)
Glen Lake won its third-straight Regional title but this time in Division 4 after advancing in Division 3 the last two seasons. Senior guard Ruby Hogan (19.1 ppg, 5.2 apg) will direct the offense as the Lakers attempt to reach the Semifinals for the second-straight March. St. Charles was another first-time Regional champion last week and is keyed by a balanced lineup with three starters averaging between 9-10 ppg, led by Emily Zelinko at 9.8.
Kalamazoo Hackett Catholic Prep (18-8) vs. Adrian Lenawee Christian (17-10)
Hackett made its first Quarterfinal with a 35-29 victory over 21-win Colon in the Regional Final. Junior Alyse Baughman (13.6 ppg) is the leading scorer for a lineup with only one senior starter. Lenawee Christian is making a return trip to the Quarterfinals, following another distance-shooting ace in senior Avery Sluss (14.1 ppg, 56 3-pointers).
MHSAA.com's weekly “Breslin Bound” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Office of Postsecondary Financial Planning located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 college savings programs (MET/MESP), as well as scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.
PHOTOS (Top) Carman-Ainsworth’s Armoni Strozier (15) gets a hand on a shot during a District win over Flushing. (Middle) Kalen Williams (3) gets a shot up for Goodrich against Davison earlier this season. (Photos by Terry Lyons.)