Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
Step by Step, EGR's Brown Climbs to Miss Basketball Award, College Future
By
Steve Vedder
Special for MHSAA.com
March 16, 2023
EAST GRAND RAPIDS – Macy Brown remembers spending her Saturday mornings with her older sisters scrambling around gymnasiums when she was no older than a first grader.
The long and winding journey from those early days to a sterling career at East Grand Rapids is one chronicled by overcoming the gangly body of a middle schooler, surrendering interest in two other sports in favor of basketball, countless hours of AAU, critical advice from two older sisters, a misfortunate accident to a teammate as a junior that necessitated a position switch and eventually to sorting through scholarship offers from a handful of elite college programs.
It's a path that concluded this week with the Pioneers’ point guard not only becoming one of just 1.3 percent of high school players to accept a Division I scholarship, but also being named winner of the prestigious Miss Basketball Award as the state's top senior player.
It's a long way from those weekend mornings to becoming the school's all-time leading scorer, a four-year starter, all-stater and Miss Basketball winner – and a story that Brown says exceeds anything she could have imagined.
"It's been amazing, magical at times," Brown said. "You don't realize how you've spent your time until it's over. There were a lot of sacrifices, but you also gain so much with the relationships you've had through basketball."
The journey started at the East Hills center in Grand Rapids with older sisters Oliva and Jillian, both of whom are currently playing Division I college basketball, and their mother Noelle, who ran an AAU program. It was the first time Macy Brown recalls taking an interest in the sport and began taking stock of what it would take to play basketball at the high school or possibly even college level.
By the time Brown entered middle school, she was all of 5-foot-9 with skills that while encouraging, were far from a guarantee that a long basketball bloodline would be extended by one more daughter. In fact, it was the first time Brown was spotted by EGR coach Troy Hammond, who recalls her as anything but the player who would become the program’s all-time leading scorer with 1,537 points while starting all 86 of the team's games over four varsity seasons.
"She was a tall, lanky kid who was just figuring her body out," Hammond said, "She was a tag-along with her sisters. She was always smiling, a happy-go-lucky kid who loved being in the gym. But I would be lying if I said she would be as good or better than the experiences I had with her sisters. That was no foregone conclusion."
Still, Brown stuck it out and slowly made progress, both mentally and physically. Boosted by advice from her sisters, Brown's on-court talent began to take shape. She also grew about three inches and began hitting the weight room to gain strength. As she entered middle school, she elected to give up lacrosse and soccer to spend more time playing basketball. Armed by having additional time for basketball, she threw herself into even more AAU ball. College coaches who constantly mine the AAU circuit for emerging talent began to notice Brown, who received her first scholarship offer from Loyola of Chicago following her eighth-grade season.
Despite the interest, however, Brown knew she had to become a better player.
"I was pretty good, but you don't realize how big of a leap it is from middle school to high school," said Brown, who had no second thoughts about becoming a single-sport athlete. "I grew up around basketball, it was always my first sport. I couldn't see playing lacrosse or soccer past high school."
Brown was good enough to make EGR's varsity as a freshman, She averaged 11.7 points per game in her inaugural season and gained additional attention from playing on a 22-1 team that would have been in contention for a Division 1 title if the season hadn't been cancelled because of COVID-19.
Brown continued to hone her game, averaging 13.5 points as a sophomore. She made all-conference for a second time and also made her college choice: she would become a Michigan Wolverine.
"When you know, you know," she said. "I knew I would wind up at Michigan because when I went other places, I would always compare them to Michigan. It just felt like home."
Brown said she relied on her sisters to know what required her utmost attention during the recruitment period. Olivia started at St. Bonaventure and now plays at Valparaiso, while Jillian is at Northwestern. Both offered crucial advice on how to pick a school.
"It definitely helped playing against them. I would get beat on, but it helped me," Macy said. "It was all for the best because it helped me become a better player."
It was after picking her college that Brown's career took another significant step forward. The Pioneers' senior point guard, Ally Carlson, who now plays at Western Michigan, suffered a season-ending ACL injury before senior-year practice began. The injury meant Brown, who had been a shooting guard her first two seasons, would have to move to point. She had to transition from becoming the team's second or even third offensive option to someone counted on to score points. She responded by averaging 22.4 as a junior and tossing in 25 points per game this season.
"I watched her develop into a leader, both as a person and on the court," Hammond said. "To see that development as a coach, it was wonderful."
Brown's improvement as a player included serious self-reflection. She admits to being the kind of athlete who maps out goals and then isn't satisfied until she reaches them.
"Every year was a checkpoint for me," she said. "I worked hard every offseason, and I would always notice what it took to play the game."
While the book on her high school career closes with the Miss Basketball Award, another door is opened in Ann Arbor. Brown said if she were to speak to a room full of young basketball wannabes, her advice would be simple. Brown was once in their position, and better than anyone else knows what it takes to conquer the next step in moving up the basketball ladder.
"It's definitely step by step, and you have to learn from your experiences," she said. "You make sacrifices, but you can gain so much."
PHOTOS (Top) Macy Brown is this season's Miss Basketball Award winner. (Middle) Brown and her sisters celebrate her award this week. (Top photo by Steve Vedder. Middle photo courtesy of the East Grand Rapids athletic department.)