Preview: Pursuing the Ultimate Prize
November 1, 2019
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Saturday’s MHSAA Boys Soccer Finals will provide opportunities for four teams to finish their seasons with the ultimate win, and all of the contenders have had their shares of success over the years.
But two teams are playing to call themselves champions for the first time – and a number of others for the first time in a while.
Division 2 is guaranteed to produce a first-time title winner, with Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern and Melvindale facing off. Troy Athens and Grosse Pointe Woods University Liggett are recognized powers in boys soccer, but they’ll both be playing for their first Finals championships since the 1990s. And it’s been more than a decade since either Traverse City West or Grosse Ile have taken home the big trophy.
Saturday’s schedule:
NOVI
Division 2: Melvindale vs. Forest Hills Northern, noon
Division 4: University Liggett vs. Muskegon Western Michigan Christian, 3 p.m.
COMSTOCK PARK
Division 1: Troy Athens vs. Traverse City West, noon
Division 3: Grosse Ile vs Grand Rapids South Christian, 3 p.m.
All of Saturday’s Finals will be broadcast live and viewable with subscription on MHSAA.tv, with audio available on MHSAANetwork.com. See below for glances at all eight finalists, and come back to Second Half later Saturday for coverage of all four championship games. (The Michigan Power Rating noted below is derived from a team's success and strength of schedule and was used to seed the top two teams in every District at the start of the postseason.)
Division 1
TRAVERSE CITY WEST
Record/rank: 18-4-2, unranked
Michigan Power Rating: No. 4
Coach: Matt Griesinger, fifth season (79-21-11)
League finish: First in Big North Conference
Championship history: Division 1 champion 2006.
Players to watch: Caleb Kinney, sr. M/F (16 goals/4 assists); Tony Gallegos, jr. F (10 goals/11 assists); Colin Blackport, soph. M/F (9 goals/10 assists); Blade Kalbfleisch, jr. GK (1.12 goals-against average).
Outlook: It’s fair to say West surprised some people by getting to the season’s final day – the Titans are unranked, after all – but don’t expect the same lack of attention next season as only three starters this weekend are seniors. West had early losses to Portage Central, Midland Dow, top-ranked Okemos and Lakewood St. Edward of Ohio, but is since riding a 13-0-1 run that’s included avenging that Okemos loss with a 1-0 win in the Regional Final and adding a 3-2 overtime win over No. 3 Novi in the Semifinal. Sophomore Josh Hirschenberger also had scored eight goals heading into this week as seven players had at least nine points on the season.
TROY ATHENS
Record/rank: 22-2-1, No. 2
Michigan Power Rating: No. 2
Coach: Todd Heugh, ninth season (154-29-18)
League finish: First in Oakland Activities Association Red
Championship history: Four MHSAA titles (most recent 1997), two runner-up finishes.
Players to watch: Jason Kemp, sr. GK (0.47 goals-against average/15 shutouts); TJ Renaud, jr. F (13 goals/4 assists); Davis DiGiovanni, sr. F (18 goals/7 assists); Andri Myftari, sr. M (13 goals/10 assists).
Outlook: After suffering its only loss of 2018 in the District Final, Athens has pushed through to its first championship game since finishing Division 1 runner-up in 2016. Along the way, the Red Hawks have eliminated No. 8 Berkley and No. 9 Troy and despite entering the playoffs coming off two straight losses. Kemp made the all-state first team last season, and Renaud made the third team. Sophomore forward Ryan Gruca had added another 10 assists entering this week.
Division 2
GRAND RAPIDS FOREST HILLS NORTHERN
Record/rank: 22-0-1, No. 2
Michigan Power Rating: No. 3
Coach: Daniel Siminski, sixth season (116-11-13)
League finish: First in Ottawa-Kent Conference White
Championship history: Division 2 runner-up 2018 and 2015.
Players to watch: Aidan O’Connor, sr. D (11 goals/4 assists); Jonathan Kliewer, sr. G (0.27 goals-against average/.900 save percentage); Will Patrick, sr. D (1 goal/12 assists), Andrew Kremer, sr. F (14 goals/6 assists).
Outlook: Forest Hills Northern is 45-1-2 over the last two seasons, that lone defeat in a shootout against Detroit Country Day in last season’s Division 2 Final. This is the program’s third 20-win season over the last five, and a number of veterans are hoping to finish their careers with one more victory. O’Connor made the all-state first team last season, while Kliewer made the second and Patrick earned honorable mention. Sophomore Seth Scharich (10 goals/3 assists) and senior Ludwig Tilly (11 goals/5 assists) joined Kremer and O’Connor with double-digit goals heading into this week, and total 10 players had double-digit points. FHN has defeated No. 4 Mattawan, No. 5 Byron Center and No. 15 Gaylord during this run.
MELVINDALE
Record/rank: 16-3-2, unranked
Michigan Power Rating: No. 28
Coach: Tomas Belba, first season (16-3-2)
League finish: Second in Western Wayne Athletic Conference
Championship history: Has never played in an MHSAA Final.
Players to watch: Alhusain Yahya, sr. M (23 goals); Fouad Noman, jr. F/M (23 goals); Alhasan Yahya sr. D/M (3 goals/27 assists); Carlos Huerta sr. M (9 goals/13 assists).
Outlook: Melvindale has advanced from its first Semifinal appearance into its first MHSAA championship game in this sport, with a Regional Final win over No. 12 Parma Western among highlights from the tournament run. The Cardinals have outscored their six postseason opponents by a combined 21-5 and not given up more than one goal in any playoff game. Senior Julian Castillo has played 95 percent of the minutes in net this fall and is giving up just one goal per game with a .942 save percentage. Belba previously served as the junior varsity coach before taking over the program this fall.
Division 3
GRAND RAPIDS SOUTH CHRISTIAN
Record/rank: 21-4-2, No. 4
Michigan Power Rating: No. 7
Coach: Jason Boersma, ninth season (149-42-22)
League finish: First in O-K Gold
Championship history: Three MHSAA titles (most recent 2015), two runner-up finishes.
Players to watch: Jeff Herrema, jr. F (22 goals/12 assists); Reese Bos, sr. M (1 goal/9 assists); Nik Schepers, jr. GK (0.80 goals-against average/11 shutouts); Thom DeVries, jr. M/F (13 goals/4 assists).
Outlook: South Christian will play for its fourth title this decade led by a number of players who should be around to start the next one – after the juniors mentioned above, junior Boston Knapp was the next leading scorer with seven goals and five assists entering this week. The Sailors’ best win surely came in the Regional Final over top-ranked Holland Christian, which had beaten South 4-0 in August. Herrema made the all-state second team last season, when South was eliminated from the tournament by the eventual Division 3 champion (Hudsonville Unity Christian) for the fourth time this decade.
GROSSE ILE
Record/rank: 23-2-1, No. 3
Michigan Power Rating: No. 3
Coach: Jon Evans, fourth season (92-6-5)
League finish: First in Huron League
Championship history: Division 3 champion 2002, runner-up 2018.
Players to watch: Max Aston, sr. M; Joe Duke, sr. M; Tony Bogataj, sr. D, Alex DeSana, sr. D. (Statistics not submitted.)
Outlook: Grosse Ile has reached the Semifinals four of the last six seasons and will attempt to take the final step after falling 3-1 in overtime to Unity Christian in last year’s Division 3 championship game. The Red Devils downed No. 7 Ann Father Gabriel Richard and No. 8 Macomb Lutheran North on their way back to the Finals, and the only defeats this season were tournament shootout losses to Detroit Country Day and Leland. Aston earned an all-state honorable mention last season.
Division 4
GROSSE POINTE WOODS UNIVERSITY LIGGETT
Record/rank: 18-2-1, No. 2
Michigan Power Rating: No. 2
Coach: David Dwaihy, fifth season (64-21-7)
League finish: First in Detroit Catholic League Intersectional 1
Championship history: Four MHSAA titles (most recent 1999), three runner-up finishes.
Players to watch: Stewart Smith, jr. F (20 goals/7 assists); Nolan Ondersma, sr. M (8 goals/18 assists); Sheikh Manneh, jr. F (21 goals/12 assists); Matthew Summers, sr. M (12 goals/14 assists).
Outlook: Liggett was one of the state’s first small-school soccer powers during the 1980s, and the Knights are back seeking their first title in two decades after Wednesday’s Semifinal was the team’s first since 2009. They’ve been building toward this run, with this fall’s league and District titles both their third at those levels under Dwaihy. Liggett eliminated No. 8 Adrian Lenawee Christian, No. 10 Royal Oak Shrine Catholic and No. 11 Bloomfield Hills Roeper during this playoffs. Smith made the all-state first team, and Ondersma earned an honorable mention last season.
MUSKEGON WESTERN MICHIGAN CHRISTIAN
Record/rank: 18-2-3, No. 4
Michigan Power Rating: No. 6
Coach: David Hulings, 15th season (251-72-18)
League finish: First in Lakes 8 Conference
Championship history: Six MHSAA titles (most recent 2010), six runner-up finishes.
Players to watch: Brandon Fles, sr. D (16 goals/6 assists); Charlie Alfree, sr. F (17 goals/3 assists); Jameson Goorman, sr. GK (0.59 goals-against average/13 shutouts); Isaac VanHoeven, sr. F/M (9 goals/6 assists).
Outlook: Western Michigan Christian also was a force during the 1980s and again during the first decade of the 2000s, and the Warriors will play for their seventh title after emerging from arguably the toughest tournament path these last three weeks. Their last three wins came against No. 3 North Muskegon, top-ranked Grandville Calvin Christian and then No. 5 Dansville, respectively. WMC has given up just one goal over six tournament games and also shut out No. 6 Leland during the week leading up to the playoffs. Fles made the all-state first team last season, Alfree the second team and Goorman the third.
PHOTO: Grosse Ile’s Tony Bogataj (15) works to get a foot on the ball during Wednesday’s Division 3 Semifinal win over Macomb Lutheran North. (Photo courtesy of C&G Newspapers.)
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.