Preview: Finals Provide 1st & 2nd Chances
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
November 6, 2020
This Michigan high school boys soccer season started with unpredictability because of COVID-19. It will end Saturday with opportunities – some enjoyed for the first time, others as second chances.
The Division 4 Final is guaranteed to produce a first-time champion, as Adrian Lenawee Christian and Grandville Calvin Christian are both first-time finalists. Division 2 is similar – DeWitt is seeking its first title, and Richland Gull Lake is seeking its first outright after earning a pair of shared championships more than two decades ago.
And then there are the second chances. In Division 3, Grosse Ile and Grand Rapids South Christian will meet on the season’s final day for the second-straight year; Grosse Ile claimed a 2-1 shootout win in 2019. In Division 1, Detroit Catholic Central and Traverse City West both are seeking the second championships in their programs’ histories – West after finishing second in Division 1 in 2019.
Here’s Saturday’s schedule:
NOVI
Division 3: Grosse Ile vs. Grand Rapids South Christian, noon
Division 4: Adrian Lenawee Christian vs. Grandville Calvin Christian, 3 p.m.
COMSTOCK PARK
Division 1: Traverse City West vs. Detroit Catholic Central, noon
Division 2: DeWitt vs. Richland Gull Lake, 3 p.m.
All of Saturday’s Finals will be broadcast live and viewable with subscription on MHSAA.tv, with audio available on MHSAANetwork.com. See below for glances at all eight finalists, and come back to Second Half later Saturday for coverage of all four championship games. (The Michigan Power Rating noted below is derived from a team's success and strength of schedule and was used to seed Districts at the start of the postseason. The MPRs listed were where teams ranked at the start of District play.)
Division 1
DETROIT CATHOLIC CENTRAL
Record: 12-0-3
Michigan Power Rating: No. 1
Coach: Gene Pulice, ninth season (121-27-23)
League finish: First in Detroit Catholic League Central
Championship history: Division 1 champion 2017.
Players to watch: Clay Moscovic, sr. F (7 goals, 2 assists); Jack Leuker, sr. M (5 goals, 6 assists); Ali Jaffer, soph. F (8 goals, 5 assists); John Browning, sr. GK (0.47 goals-against average, 6 shutouts).
Outlook: The Shamrocks are back at the Finals for the second time in four seasons to cap a run that’s included wins over No. 3 Mattawan and No. 6 Warren De La Salle Collegiate, one of three opponents that dealt them a draw during the regular season. (The others were No. 15 Fenton and No. 5 Troy Athens.) Moscovic made the all-state third team and junior midfielder Vincent Stockton (five goals, one assist this fall) earned an honorable mention in 2019.
TRAVERSE CITY WEST
Record: 22-1-2
Michigan Power Rating: No. 2
Coach: Matt Griesinger, sixth season (191-23-13)
League finish: First in Big North Conference
Championship history: Division 1 champion 2006, runner-up 2019.
Players to watch: Blade Kalbfleisch, sr. GK (1.08 goals-against average, 7 shutouts); Gavin Michael, sr. F (24 goals, 10 assists); Colin Blackport, jr. M (19 goals, 29 assists); Tony Gallegos, sr. F (18 goals, 9 assists).
Outlook: West is seeking to take the final step after falling to Troy Athens in last season’s Division 1 Final, and the Titans defeated Athens in Wednesday’s Semifinal to get that chance. West hasn’t lost since falling to De La Salle in its opener, and outscored its five postseason opponents by a combined 20-2. Gallegos made the all-state second team last season and Kalbfleisch earned an honorable mention. Senior Kaden Ales (8 goals/11 assists) and juniors John Hirschenberger (11/9) and Cooper Davis (8/7) fill out a high-scoring midfield.
Division 2
DEWITT
Record: 13-4-2
Michigan Power Rating: No. 6
Coach: Joe Ishraidi, sixth season (70-45-14)
League finish: Third in Capital Area Activities Conference Blue
Championship history: Has never played in an MHSAA Final.
Players to watch: Patrick Woodbury, sr. GK (1.18 goals-against average, 6 shutouts); Landon Hungerford, sr. M (24 goals, 9 assists); Zach Stephan, sr. F (9 goals, 15 assists); Victor Toune, sr. M (8 goals, 14 assists).
Outlook: Ishraidi, a former DeWitt standout during the first decade of the 2000s, has the annually-competitive Panthers heading into their first championship game. DeWitt dipped to 11-12-2 just two seasons ago but is 27-8-6 since, with wins this playoff run over No. 14 Dearborn Divine Child and No. 5 Riverview. Hungerford made the all-state first team, Toune the second and Woodbury earned honorable mention in 2019.
RICHLAND GULL LAKE
Record: 15-2-1
Michigan Power Rating: No. 3
Coach: Matt Streitel, fifth season (68-27-7)
League finish: Tied for first in Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference
Championship history: Class B co-champion in 1993 and 1988, runner-up in 1983.
Players to watch: AJ Boucher, jr. M (3 goals, 19 assists); Eron Sylejmani, sr. M (21 goals, 15 assists); Tyler Corstange, jr. F (15 goals, 6 assists); Braden Minehart, fr. GK (0.22 goals-against average, 8 shutouts).
Outlook: Streitel has had the program building to this point, following up last season’s 17-1-1 finish with second-straight league and third-consecutive Regional championships – and a 2-0 win over DeWitt on Sept. 26. The Blue Devils defeated top-ranked Holland and avenged a loss to No. 12 St. Joseph during this playoff run. Sylejmani made the all-state second team last season, and Boucher made the third team.
Division 3
GRAND RAPIDS SOUTH CHRISTIAN
Record: 18-0-1
Michigan Power Rating: No. 4
Coach: Jason Boersma, 10th season (166-42-24)
League finish: First in O-K Gold
Championship history: Three MHSAA titles (most recent 2015), three runner-up finishes.
Players to watch: Jeff Herrema, sr. F (11 goals/14 assists); Nik Schepers, sr. GK (0.57 goals-against average); Thom DeVries, sr. M (12 goals/6 assists); Boston Knapp, sr. F (15 goals, 5 assists).
Outlook: The majority of last season’s top players are this season’s standouts again, with Herrema a returning all-state first teamer and Schepers having earned an honorable mention in 2019. Herrema isn’t expected to start; he reportedly suffered a shoulder injury two weeks ago. The Sailors haven’t lost again since falling in last year’s Final, with that lone draw this season with Division 1 Caledonia. South Christian downed No. 5 Wyoming Lee and No. 7 Hudsonville Unity Christian early this postseason and advanced to Saturday with a shootout win over No. 1 Elk Rapids. Junior Levi DeRuiter (3 goals/13 assists) is another cog helping to make the offense go.
GROSSE ILE
Record: 19-1-1
Michigan Power Rating: No. 2
Coach: Jon Evans, fifth season (114-6-9)
League finish: Second in Huron League
Championship history: Division 3 champion 2019 and 2002, runner-up 2018.
Players to watch: Clayton Lafayette, jr. M (4 goals, 16 assists); Bosh Tanyi, sr. M (45 goals, 8 assists); Drew Cardinal, soph. F (7 goals, 11 assists); Hayden Watson, soph. GK (0.30 goals-against average, 15 shutouts).
Outlook: Despite graduating eight players who earned all-state recognition last season, Grosse Ile is right back where it ended 2019. Tanyi is the offensive force after earning an all-state honorable mention in 2019, with four teammates putting up double-digit assists including as well freshman midfielder Ali Khaled (2 goals/14 assists) and junior midfielder Jon Duke (2/12). The Red Devils’ lone loss was to Division 2 No. 5 Riverview – the teams split this fall – and they tied Elk Rapids early. Grosse Ile has outscored its five playoff opponents by a combined 26-1.
Division 4
ADRIAN LENAWEE CHRISTIAN
Record: 15-2-1
Michigan Power Rating: No. 6
Coach: Nate Sharpe, fifth season (91-34-3)
League finish: First in Independent Soccer League
Championship history: Has never played in an MHSAA Final.
Players to watch: Francisco Cabrera, sr. M (9 goals, 9 assists); Gabe Henley, sr. F (14 goals, 8 assists); Evan Hendershot, sr. GK (0.88 goals-against average, 7 shutouts); Brennan Griffith, sr. M (24 goals, 14 assists).
Outlook: Lenawee Christian went over 20 wins for the second time in three seasons and has advanced to the Finals for the first time, with notable postseason wins over No. 12 Hillsdale Academy and top-ranked Plymouth Christian Academy. Sharpe does have experience at this level of the tournament; he led Hudsonville Freedom Baptist to the Division 4 title in 2009 and has more than 200 career coaching wins. Hendershot made the all-state second team last season, junior midfielder Jacob McKelvey (4 goals, 3 assists) made the third and Cabrera earned an honorable mention.
GRANDVILLE CALVIN CHRISTIAN
Record: 19-0-2
Michigan Power Rating: No. 9
Coach: Karel de Waal Malefyt, 11th season (146-60-24)
League finish: First in O-K Silver
Championship history: Has never played in an MHSAA Final.
Players to watch: Ethan DeJager, sr. GK (0.10 goals-against average, 18 shutouts); Lukas Lindhout, sr. F (20 goals, 11 assists); Jake DeYoung, sr. F (13 goals, 7 assists); Jack Hollebeek, jr. F (13 goals, 9 assists).
Outlook: Calvin Christian is in the midst of a two-year surge that has seen it go a combined 39-2-3 with a pair of league and District titles. The Squires defeated No. 10 Wyoming Potter’s House Christian and No. 14 Leland during this first-time Finals run, and downed its five playoff opponents by a combined 24-1. The regular-season draws came to Division 3 No. 5 Wyoming Lee and Division 1 Hudsonville. DeYoung earned an all-state honorable mention last season. Junior midfielder Nolan Karel (7 goals, 14 assists) and senior midfielder Luke Yonker (2 goals, 17 assists) have been leading distributors.
PHOTO: Traverse City West's Tony Gallegos (13) works to get past a Troy Athens defender during the 2019 Division 1 Final.
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.