Preview: 4 Titles, Perfection on the Line
November 6, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
At this point in the season, it’s a rarity that any team has not tasted defeat.
But Saturday’s Boys Soccer Finals feature two teams undefeated this fall – including one seeking its first MHSAA championship.
Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central and Burton Genesee Christian have not fallen in 2015 – and while Forest Hills Central has three ties, Genesee Christian has won 27 straight since falling in a Regional Semifinal a year ago. Forest Hills Central is seeking its first title in more than a decade; Genesee Christian is seeking its first title … period.
Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern also will play in its first Final, and Williamston also is seeking its first championship after finishing runner-up in Division 3 two of the last three seasons. Canton is hoping to repeat in Division 1 after surviving a Semifinal against Rochester Adams, the team it defeated in last year’s Division 1 Final.
Below is Saturday's schedule, followed by a look at each team in the hunt:
Division 1 at Brighton, 3 p.m.
Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (22-0-3) vs. Canton (21-5-3)
Division 2 at Comstock Park, 3 p.m.
Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern (22-1-3) vs. Mason (23-3)
Division 3 at Comstock Park, Noon
Grand Rapids South Christian (19-3-3) vs. Williamston (19-5)
Division 4 at Brighton, Noon
Kalamazoo Hackett (20-4-1) vs. Genesee Christian (27-0)
All four Finals will be streamed live on MHSAA.TV and available on a subscription basis. A one-day pass costs $9.95 and allows access to all four games plus the Lower Peninsula Cross Country Finals. A month pass costs $14.95 and allows fans to also watch live the Volleyball Semifinals and Finals and Lower Peninsula Girls Swimming & Diving Finals, plus weekly coverage of the football playoffs. Radio broadcasts of the Soccer Finals will be available on MHSAAnetwork.com.
Click for links to brackets and scores. All statistics below are through Regional Finals.
DIVISION 1
CANTON
Record/rank: 21-5-3, No. 9
Coach: Mark Zemanski, third season (62-7-9)
League finish: First in Kensington Lakes Activities Association South
Championship history: Three MHSAA titles (most recent 2014).
Players to watch: Hunter Olson, sr. F (25 goals, 12 assists); Jimmy Walkinshaw, sr. M (five goals, 10 assists); Josh Posuniak, sr. M (six goals, 10 assists).
Outlook: The reigning champion lost two of its first four games and two of its final five of the regular season; hence the lower-than-expected ranking. But the Chiefs defeated No. 8 Salem in the District Final and No. 3 Rochester Adams in the Semifinal, and enter Saturday with six senior starters try to finish with a win. Olsen was an all-state honorable mention as a junior, and senior midfielder Jason Ren scored the lone goal of the 2014 Final.
GRAND RAPIDS FOREST HILLS CENTRAL
Record/rank: 22-0-3, No. 2
Coach: Blair Lincoln, fourth season (53-21-11)
League finish: First in Ottawa-Kent Conference White
Championship history: Division 2 champion 2004.
Players to watch: Mohamed Haji, jr. F (17 goals, 17 assists); Anthony Bowie, sr. F (40 goals, 24 assists); Jake Ireland, sr. M (13 goals, 13 assists).
Outlook: The Rangers’ undefeated run has included tournament wins over No. 5 Detroit Catholic Central, No. 10 Portage Northern and No. 12 East Kentwood. They’ve improved substantially and annually under Lincoln, who formerly coached at Caledonia for a decade before taking over in 2012. Forest Hills Central was 5-12-2 that fall, but has improved its win total each year. Bowie’s 40 goals heading into the week are enough to make the MHSAA record book, and Haji earned an all-state honorable mention last season.
DIVISION 2
GRAND RAPIDS FOREST HILLS NORTHERN
Record/rank: 22-1-3, No. 2
Coach: Daniel Siminski, second season (38-3-5)
League finish: First in O-K Bronze
Championship history: Has never played in an MHSAA Final.
Players to watch: Brayden Texer, soph. F (38 goals, 15 assists); Dante Compean, sr. GK (.930 save %).
Outlook: Forest Hills Northern’s run to its first MHSAA Final has included wins over No. 5 East Lansing, the reigning champion, plus No. 3 Mattawan, No. 14 Petoskey and No. 17 Grand Rapids Northview. The Huskies have given up one or zero goals in 20 of 27 games and spread the wealth offensively after Texer; no other player has more than nine goals, but five more have at least five apiece.
MASON
Record/rank: 23-3, No. 8
Coach: Nick Binder, ninth season (175-30-12)
League finish: First in Capital Area Activities Conference Red
Championship history: Three MHSAA titles (most recent 1997), one runner-up finish.
Players to watch: Leutrim Shefkiu, sr. M (26 goals, 15 assists); Holden Dippel, sr. D (14 goals, six assists); John Kingman, sr. D (seven goals, 26 assists).
Outlook: Mason occupied the top spot in the first three state coaches polls before a couple of tough losses to good teams. The Bulldogs haven’t given up a goal since their last defeat, a stretch of eight games including all six in the tournament. Shefkiu made the all-state first team as a junior and Dippel and Kingman earned honorable mentions and anchor a back line that has contributed to 18 shutouts total. Senior forward Christian Jordan (11 goals, seven assists) and junior defender Lirim Shefkiu (eight goals, 11 assists) also are key offensive contributors.
DIVISION 3
GRAND RAPIDS SOUTH CHRISTIAN
Record/rank: 19-3-3, No. 2
Coach: Jason Boersma, fifth season (88-20-13)
League finish: First in O-K Gold
Championship history: Two MHSAA titles (most recent 2012), two runner-up finishes.
Players to watch: Carter Selvius, sr. GK (0.59 goals-against average, 16 shutouts); Ty Brinks, sr. F (20 goals, eight assists); Austin Clark, sr. D.
Outlook: South Christian will be playing in its fifth Final over the last nine seasons, and also finished Division 3 champion in 2010 and runner-up in 2013 and 2007. Selvius, a third-team all-stater last season, is the final line of one of the state’s top defenses, with Clark – a first-team all-state midfielder a year ago – moving back to defend in front of him. Gladwin on Wednesday was the first tournament opponent to score on the Sailors. Senior Zach DeKock and sophomore Sam DeVries both had 15 goals heading into this week to augment the offense.
WILLIAMSTON
Record/rank: 19-5, No. 3
Coach: Brent Sorg, 11th season (151-89-21)
League finish: First in CAAC White.
Championship history: Division 3 runner-up in 2014 and 2012.
Players to watch: Brian Ganton, sr. F (17 goals, four assists); Josh Ward, sr. M (11 goals, five assists); Eric Oesterle, sr. D (one goal, one assist).
Outlook: The reigning runner-up Hornets will play in their third Final in four seasons and have had great success under Sorg; this season’s win total matches their high during his 11 and they’ve won five straight District titles. Oesterle made the all-state first team last season and Ward made the second, but they are two of a number of contributors who have helped Williamston outscore its opponents by a combined 72-20. Senior Jacob Chisholm added 11 assists from the midfield heading into this week.
DIVISION 4
BURTON GENESEE CHRISTIAN
Record/rank: 27-0, No. 14
Coach: Doug Anderson, seventh season (108-41-10)
League finish: Does not play in a league.
Championship history: Has never played in an MHSAA Final.
Players to watch: Cole Russell, jr. M (34 goals, five assists); Riley Buchalski, jr. F (18 goals, 21 assists); Caleb DuPree, jr. F (22 goals, 10 assists).
Outlook: Genesee Christian flew under the radar much of the season despite eliminating then-reigning champion Lansing Christian in a 2014 District Final. Among those to fall early were Division 3 No. 17 Frankenmuth; the Soldiers then cruised through the first four games of the tournament and then eliminated No. 9 Grosse Pointe Woods University Liggett and top-ranked Lansing Christian, again, to reach this weekend. Russell made the all-state first team last season and Buchalski made the second, and the team also gets a boost from a defense backed by junior keeper Zach Noecker (0.35 goals-against average, 18 shutouts).
KALAMAZOO HACKETT
Record/rank: 20-4-1, No. 7
Coach: Ian Troutman, first season (20-4-1)
League finish: Second in Southwestern Athletic Conference
Championship history: Four MHSAA titles (most recent 1995).
Players to watch: Will Knoll, sr. F (24 goals, 17 assists); Max Keenan, fr. F (18 goals, seven assists); Kieran O’Brien, sr. M (10 goals, 14 assists).
Outlook: First-year coach Troutman, who formerly coached the junior varsity at Haslett and played at Byron Center, has Hackett in its first Final in more than a decade after the Irish fell in the Regional Final a year ago. Six seniors start, including the entire back line in front of junior keeper Matthew Carpenter. They have traveled a tough road over the last two weeks, beating No. 8 Grandville Calvin Christian and No. 10 Hartford to win the Regional and then downing No. 3 Muskegon Western Michigan Christian in the Quarterfinal.
PHOTO: Grand Rapids South Christian sophomore Matthew Hubbard (13) works to gain control of the ball during a game against Lake Odessa Lakewood. (Photo courtesy of Grand Rapids South Christian.)
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.