Performance: Coldwater's Shuaib Aljabaly
October 7, 2016
Shuaib Aljabaly
Coldwater junior - Cross Country
In a relatively short time, Aljabaly has made an incredible impression on the cross country course. He started running with Coldwater's high school team only midway through his sophomore season but finished last fall placing eighth at the Lower Peninsula Division 2 Final. Now a junior, Aljabaly is undefeated this season and earned the Michigan National Guard "Performance of the Week" by winning Saturday's Otsego Invitational Division 2 race in a school-record 15:34, finishing just ahead of two more 2015 all-staters in Grand Rapids Christian's Justin Varineau and Otsego's Alex Comerford.
Also a starting midfielder on Coldwater's No. 7-ranked soccer team, Aljabaly has led the Cardinals' cross country team to a No. 4 ranking in LP Division 2 – they finished second as a team at Otsego only to top-ranked Grand Rapids Christian. Varineau had finished one spot ahead of Aljabaly at last season's MHSAA Final – but Aljabaly was most familiar with Comerford (13th in LPD2 in 2015) as the two already had faced off this fall in a race of undefeated runners Sept. 24 at the Jackson Invitational. Aljabaly's time at Otsego also would've won that event's Division 1 race by 40 seconds.
Aljabaly played junior varsity soccer and ran track as a freshman, qualifying for the MHSAA Finals in the 3,200-meter run. At the convincing of his cross country coaches, Aljabaly gave that sport a try last fall and should contend for the LPD2 title this season and next; his 15:34 would've finished third at last season's MHSAA Final and he also broke 16 minutes with a 15:46 at Jackson. He'll likely face his fastest challenge so far this fall at Saturday's Portage Invitational, where he finished seventh in the Division 2 race last season.
Cross Country coach Jim Bilsborrow said: “He is a real competitor who hates to lose. He also studies his opponents and knows what are their strong and weak points, which he tries to exploit. Now that he has made cross country his primary sport, he has been able and willing to do some more intense training, which of course has made him even better. He is also a real ‘team player’ who cares about his teammates and how well the team does. Of course, I must add that he is blessed with talent, as all great runners are endowed, but fortunately he is using his talent and not wasting it.”
Performance Point: “We raced the week before at Jackson and the course was pretty fast, and they said Otsego’s is even faster,” Aljabaly said. “I was 1.5 seconds away from the record at that (Jackson) race, so I had a good feeling about Otsego. … Usually I start kicking at the 2-mile mark; Coach is usually standing there telling me when to kick. But I waited until the 3-mile mark, the 2.9. I didn’t know if one of (Varineau and Comerford) would go or not. We just stayed together until I went, and I felt like they just dropped back. But (Varineau) was kicking strong; he was only four tenths of a second behind me. I was told he was six seconds behind me at the 3-mile mark. Everyone was just yelling so loud, it made me run faster.”
Doubling up: “(Playing two sports) is going better than last year. It’s pretty hard, but we’re 14-1-1 (now 15-1-1) in soccer and we just locked up the conference, so we’re doing pretty good there too. It’s really flexible, the schedule. The coaches talk it out before the season starts. Cross country is my primary so I go to cross country practice and I go to soccer practice unless there’s a meet the same day, and then I usually go to the cross country meet. I haven’t missed a soccer game, but this weekend (running) at Portage, I’m going to miss a soccer game.”
Back for more: “Last year I wasn’t going to do cross country, but Coach Bilsborrow got me to do it. I started halfway through the season and at Portage last year I broke the school record but on a short court (just less than 5K), and that’s what motivated me to keep running.”
Born to run: “I like the competition. I like being nervous before the race, the feeling of knowing who you’re up against, the competition mainly. … We didn’t really have strong competition at the first few races. At Jackson I went against (Comerford) and I kinda realized how he races and starts off at the beginning. At Otsego I thought I’d get (Comerford) but I wasn’t sure about (Varineau). ... (Competition) pushes me. It motivates me. At Jackson, Coach told me (Comerford) was undefeated too. One of us was going to lose that day.”
Now I know: “Last year at the Portage meet, I went out too fast. I didn’t know who I was going against, and it was the top 10 kids in the state. I led for a mile, but I didn’t know how to race last year; I didn’t know how to start and how to finish and how to race. I raced this summer at 5Ks and (learned) strategies and talked to Coach about it. Grand Rapids Christian, Otsego and most of the rest of the good kids are going to be there (Saturday), and it’s going to show me what I can do at state.”
- Geoff Kimmerly, Second Half editor
Every week during the 2016-17 school year, Second Half and the Michigan National Guard will recognize a “Performance of the Week" from among the MHSAA's 750 member high schools.
The Michigan Army National Guard provides trained and ready forces in support of the National Military Strategy, and responds as needed to state, local, and regional emergencies to ensure peace, order, and public safety. The Guard adds value to our communities through continuous interaction. National Guard soldiers are part of the local community. Guardsmen typically train one weekend per month and two weeks in the summer. This training maintains readiness when needed, be it either to defend our nation's freedom or protect lives and property of Michigan citizens during a local natural disaster.
Previous 2016-17 honorees:
Sept. 29: Taylor Seaman, Brighton swimming & diving – Read
Sept. 22: Maggie Farrell, Battle Creek Lakeview cross country – Read
Sept. 15: Franki Strefling, Buchanan volleyball – Read
Sept. 8: Noah Jacobs, Corunna cross country – Read
PHOTOS: (Top) Coldwater's Shuaib Aljabaly cruises through a course this season. (Middle) Aljabaly is undefeated in 2016 and will next race Saturday at the Portage Invitational. (Photos courtesy of the Coldwater boys cross country program.)
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.