Mattawan Takes Final History-Making Step
November 5, 2016
By Dan Stickradt
Special for Second Half
ROCHESTER HILLS — Although Halloween was five days ago, Jarrett Hageman openly admits that he was never so scared in his life than he was late Saturday afternoon.
Even in the broad daylight with no ghosts or ghouls around to spook him.
Walking gingerly up to the penalty spot with the game on the line, the Mattawan senior laced a shot off the left goal post and into the goal in what proved to be the biggest and most memorable score in Wildcats lore.
Hageman’s penalty kick came as his team’s fifth shooter in a shootout and was enough to propel 11th-ranked Mattawan to a 1-0 victory over unranked Dearborn Divine Child in the MHSAA Division 2 Final at Rochester Hills Stoney Creek High School.
Mattawan won the shootout 4-3, making its first, third, fourth and fifth shots to prevail. Nick Hare, Dylan Burkett, Tate Rosenhagen and Hageman tallied in the tie-breaking shootout for the Wildcats.
Divine Child converted its first three kicks only to see its final two attempts sail over the crossbar. Alex Higgins, Shane Ciucci and Justin Stack finished their PKs for the Falcons.
“I was never so scared as I was walking up there to take the shot,” admitted Hageman. “I mean, I was so nervous. You dream about being (in this position), taking a shot in a shootout. I knew in my heart that I could make it, but I thought I’d missed because it hit the goal post. Thankfully, it went in and we finally won a state championship.”
Mattawan’s journey is somewhat unlike most state powers’ programs. Fielding legions of state-ranked teams dating back to the 1980s, including three previous Final Four squads over its storied history, the Wildcats had never reached the MHSAA Finals until this weekend.
The 1990 squad entered the postseason ranked No. 2 in Class B only to fall short in Regional play. Mattawan also lost in the Semifinals in 1989, 2011 and 2015 — the latter two in Division 2.
This end result leaves veteran coach Kirt Brown, in his 11th season at the helm of the Mattawan program, breathing a sigh of relief.
“We came close in (2015 and 2011), and although I was at a different school (Parchment) way back when, the school got to the semis before I got here,” noted Brown. “We finally got it done this time. I couldn’t be more proud of these guys. This was somewhat of an ugly game. We scrapped and fought. You could see that both teams were tired in the second overtime. It’s wasn’t pretty. But I’ll take an ugly win over a pretty loss any day.”
A year ago, Mattawan made a run to the Semifinals before running out of gas and dropping a 4-2 decision to Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern. That was with all-state Dream Team midfielder Nick King directing the show for a team that scored 102 goals. King graduated last summer along with a talented class.
This season, Mattawan outscored the opposition 55-19 over 28 total games, pulled of a stunner with a 2-0 upset of No. 1-ranked East Lansing in the Semifinal on Wednesday, and outscored its seven postseason opponents by a combined 14-2.
“We knew we had a good team, but I think when we defeated East Lansing, that’s when we believed it,” offered Brown. “We didn’t have an easy road, either. We beat (Stevensville) Lakeshore in the opening round and they were ranked. We beat Marshall and Holland in the Regionals and they were ranked. Divine Child might as well been ranked. They made a great run to get here, too.”
Holdover scoring threats Hageman (28 goals, five assists) and junior midfielder Evan Marquess (five goals, 11 assists) carried the Wildcats in their long run this season.
“Last year we were even better, more skilled,” said Hageman. “But the seniors this year have something that no other (senior class) has, and that’s a state championship.
Senior Casey Kirkbride notched his team’s 14th shutout of the campaign. He made eight saves throughout 80 minutes of regulation and two 10-minute overtime periods.
Divine Child held a narrow 13-10 shots edge, including 8-5 with shots directly on frame. Mattawan held an 11-5 edge with corner kicks but could not beat Divine Child’s Evan Mazurek, one of the state’s top junior goalkeepers, until the shootout.
“The defenses both played great; both goalkeeper played really well,” said Brown. “When you get to a shootout, anything can happen.”
It was the end of unranked Divine Child’s Cinderella ride. With several state-ranked teams going out early, the Falcons snuck up and made the deepest run in school history. They knocked off No. 13 Dexter in the Regional Semifinals and also blanked Fenton in the Semifinal on Wednesday; Fenton had spent time in the top 20 before dropping out just before the start of the postseason.
“It was an amazing run by our guys,” said Divine Child coach Dean Kowalski. “I think we were just on the cusp of being a great team. We finally put things together and made a run.
“I didn’t mind being under the radar a little bit,” added Kowalski. “When we saw a lot of very good teams go down, we thought we might have a chance. We knew the talent was there. Defensively, we were very solid. We only gave up one goal in the tournament until the shootout. If we came back on Sunday and played again in another shootout, maybe it would end differently.”
Both goalies made several key plays to keep the game scoreless.
Kirkbride dove to his left in the second half to stop Ciucci’s blast to the near post.
Mazurek was quite active clearing the 11 corner kicks and made perhaps the biggest save of regulation, leaping to his left to punch away a 22-yard strike from Marquess that was destined for the far corner with 4:18 to play in the second half.
PHOTOS: (Top) Mattawan’s Evan Marquess (9) works to get around Divine Child’s Jake Pappas. (Middle) Divine Child’s Justin Stack tries to gain possession against a Mattawan field player.
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.