Long-Pursued Goals Becoming Expectations for Much-Improved Kearsley
By
Paul Costanzo
Special for MHSAA.com
August 30, 2023
Lucas Groulx could see this coming.
During his freshman year, when the goal some nights for Flint Kearsley boys soccer was “don’t get mercied,” Groulx knew there were better times ahead.
Much better.
With a 4-1 start to this season, those wins already eclipsing the total from the entire fall of 2021, it looks like he’s being proved correct.
“It doesn’t really surprise me at all,” the junior center back said. “I knew from the get-go that the guys I was playing with are really good. I could definitely see that (success coming) later on down the road.”
It’s still very early, and nobody at Kearsley is hanging a banner. The goals of winning a District championship and finishing among the top three in the Flint Metro League still require plenty of work.
But the feeling is different now. There’s no longer just hope that all of that is possible. It’s becoming an expectation.
“We don’t want to just be in games; we need to win those games,” Kearsley coach Art Moody said. “All those next steps that we talked about, we set those goals and we set them up three years ago. Midway through last season, that’s when the corner was turned. That’s when it was like, ‘OK, we can compete.’ Getting double-digit wins, that was a big deal for the program. Now, it’s like, that’s not even a question anymore. We’re doing way better than that now.”
Moody, who has won three MHSAA Finals championships coaching the Flint Powers Catholic girls program, is entering his third season at Kearsley.
In his first year, the team won just one regular-season game, but made a run to the District Final.
Year 2 saw the Hornets go 10-11, another major step forward.
The majority of that team was coming back this fall, including top scorers Caden Saxton and Tony Romero. Saxton, a senior, holds the school record for goals in a season (24) and career (52).
The back four, led by Groulx and classmate Saul Granados, returned intact, along with holding midfielder Danny Sanson and goalkeeper Aiden Tipton. All six received some form of all-league honors in the Metro.
And for many of the returning players, their experience playing together goes well beyond high school. Saxton’s father Keith, who is the school’s athletic director and Moody’s assistant, coached many of the current Hornets as kids on the MESA Sharks, a local travel team.
“We were all bonded,” Sanson, a senior, said. “We were pretty much family to each other since we were growing up playing with one another.”
That’s all led to the thought within the program that this is the year to truly make a mark and put Kearsley boys soccer on the map.
This season opened with four lopsided victories, and then a surprise from the Michigan High School Soccer Coaches Association: The Hornets were listed in the Division 2 rankings, coming in at No. 12.
“It felt incredible,” Sanson said. “I didn’t even expect that, to be honest. It was an incredible feeling for all of us. We were all so proud.”
Even Groulx, who had faith all along, had to get some extra confirmation on this development.
“When I first saw it, I honestly didn’t know if it was true or not,” he said. “Then it really kind of dawned on us that we need to set a new standard here at Kearsley. It’s definitely going to push us to try and excel and just play better overall.”
Rankings are often downplayed by coaches and players, even if they’re typically well aware of them.
But Moody, who consistently sees his Powers girls near the top of the list in their division, was OK with letting his players soak this one in a bit.
“I made that comment that we got recognized at the state level, and that’s something that’s never happened to Kearsley,” he said. “I told them it’s not because of your record. You get recognized if coaches say your name. You get recognized if coaches are saying, ‘That’s someone to watch out for.’”
Of course, celebrating the ranking has a limit, and while the Hornets dropped their first match after its release – a 3-2 loss against Lake Fenton – they’ve decided to use that recognition to further fuel them to achieve their true goals.
“I feel like it motivates us to be better, but it also puts a little bit of pressure on us,” Sanson said. “We have to keep our standards high and just be doing the best we can every time we go out on the field. We’ve gotta bring it. Bring it, bring it, bring it.”
Paul Costanzo served as a sportswriter at The Port Huron Times Herald from 2006-15, including three years as lead sportswriter, and prior to that as sports editor at the Hillsdale Daily News from 2005-06. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair, Sanilac, Huron, Tuscola, Saginaw, Bay, Arenac, Midland and Gladwin counties.
PHOTOS (Top) Kearsley’s Carlos Granados (7) steps into a kick during a game against Durand on Aug 21. (Middle) The team celebrates its Hornet Invitational championship Saturday after defeating Birch Run and Saginaw Nouvel. (Below) Caden Saxton (6) makes his move during last season's game against Armada. (Photos courtesy of the Flint Kearsley athletic department.)
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.