Grayling, High-Scoring Senior Off to Fast Start, Setting Sights Higher
By
Tom Spencer
Special for MHSAA.com
September 8, 2023
Grayling is not normally mentioned among the contenders for the Lake Michigan Conference soccer championship.
Nor have deep postseason runs been expected.
All that may be changing. The Vikings are making it known they will challenge the likes of Elk Rapids, Harbor Springs and Charlevoix for the league title, with Kalkaska hoping to contend in the LMC as well.
Grayling is scoring goals. The Vikings (7-1) won their first seven contests this year scoring a combined 46 goals in the process. They picked up wins over Ogemaw Heights and Mount Pleasant along the way. They also won an early-season tournament they hosted.
Senior Mitchell Harrington is leading the way with 25 goals and eight assists.
“Mitch wasn’t on the radar last year preseason,” acknowledged Grayling coach Andy Moore. “He came back late preseason and then of course he gets all-state honorable mention last year as a junior.”
As a freshman Harrington played mostly defense for the Vikings. He switched to football his sophomore year. He came back to soccer last season and scored 26 goals and picked up five assists.
Now he has the single-season school scoring record in his sights along with challenging for the conference title and leading the Vikings into the postseason.
Harrington is helping put the Vikings as a team on the radar screen too. They are coming off a 9-12-1 finish last year. They were 8-12-1 in 2021 and 12-6-1 in 2020, Moore’s first year at the helm.
Harrington is widely acclaimed for his speed and ability to put the ball in the net. Opposing coaches know they can never rest with a lead knowing Harrington is dangerous and can make the game interesting with his quick strikes.
“Mitch is a good kid,” Moore said of his senior star. “He’s a class act, and that’s what we tell these kids to be.”
Harrington is surrounded by talented soccer players, Moore is quick to say.
“We have a good supporting cast,” Moore asserted.
Junior Drake Dunham has six goals and 11 assists. Senior Alex Moore has contributed five goals and four assists, and sophomore Brody Cobb has six goals and an assist.
Center back Grant Dunham, also a junior, leads the defense in front of sophomore Jordan Peters, who gained valuable experience in net last year.
“For me, it starts with our center defender Grant Dunham,” Moore said. “And, Jordan is an amazing keeper.”
Grayling suffered its first loss of the season Thursday to perennial champ Elk Rapids. The Elks blew open a 1-1 second-half tie with five goals over the final 25 minutes of the contest. Harrington scored the Vikings’ lone goal.
“We had a learning experience,” Moore said of his team’s first loss. “We’ve got to adjust and move on and get ready for Harbor Springs.
“We’ve got to move forward as a team and get better.”
The Vikings will play next at Harbor Springs on Sept. 12. They get to host both Harbor and the Elks later in the season. They also will play Kalkaska in a home and home. The Blazers tied Harbor on Thursday and are off to a 1-0-1 league and 4-1-2 overall start.
Harrington has high hopes of keeping the Vikings in the league race as he reaches for the school’s scoring record. The bar is set at 42.
“Mitch is aiming for the school record,” Moore pointed out. “He should get it, but we’ll see.”
Elk Rapids remains the measuring stick for much of the league, but especially Grayling’s fourth-year coach.
“Elk Rapids is the team where you want to be,” Moore said. “I always tell the kids this is the team you want to beat and want to compete against.
“Mentally, I think we’re there,” he continued. “I thought last year in the Districts we were there mentally as well, but we played nervous and fouled (and) gave up two early penalty kicks.”
The Elks defeated Grayling 5-2 last year in that contest on their way to the District and Regional titles. Harrington had both goals.
The Vikings, who will host the District tournament including both Elk Rapids and Kalkaska this fall, aren’t really surprised to be off to a 7-1 start.
“We kind of expected it a little bit with what we’ve been building on the last couple years,” Moore said. “We’re excited.
“We beat a couple of quality teams in Ogemaw Heights and Mount Pleasant,” Moore continued. “We feel pretty good about ourselves.”
Tom Spencer is a longtime MHSAA-registered basketball and soccer official, and former softball and baseball official, and he also has coached in the northern Lower Peninsula area. He previously has written for the Saginaw News, Bay County Sports Page and Midland Daily News. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Manistee, Wexford, Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw, Iosco, Alcona, Oscoda, Crawford, Kalkaska, Grand Traverse, Benzie, Leelanau, Antrim, Otsego, Montmorency, Alpena, Presque Isle, Cheboygan, Charlevoix and Emmet counties.
PHOTOS (Top) Grayling, including Caleb Baker (2), Ben Gardiner (13), Mitchel Harrington (4) and Gibsen Barnett (10), is off to a 7-1 start. (Middle) Harrington and Alex Moore (12) work to control possession against Charlevoix this season. (Below) Grant Dunham drives the ball downfield. (Photos by Stacy Moore.)
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.