DCC Wins Matchup of 1st-Time Finalists
November 4, 2017
By Keith Dunlap
Special for Second Half
ROCHESTER HILLS – Ryan Pierson entered the Division 1 Boys Soccer Final having scored 31 goals already on the season for Detroit Catholic Central.
However, number 32 turned out to not only be more meaningful than the other 31 combined, but the most important goal of the entire season.
With 6:49 remaining, Pierson stepped up to the line and knocked in a penalty kick for what turned out to be the only goal of the game in a 1-0 Catholic Central win over Walled Lake Central in a title-game matchup that featured two programs playing in the championship game for the first time.
For all the MHSAA championships in other sports the decorated Catholic Central athletic program has accumulated, it now has a soccer title to add to the trophy case.
“It’s 39 years in the making,” Catholic Central head coach Gene Pulice said. “Our first one is definitely historic and impactful. To be the first coach to lead a team to it, it’s impactful for sure.”
Pierson created the scoring chance himself after being fouled in the box by a Walled Lake Central defender.
He got a loose ball on the edge of the right side of the penalty area and took on two defenders as he dribbled toward the goal.
Pierson put the ball through the legs of one defender to get past him and then was taken down by the other, and the official didn’t hesitate to call the foul.
Once he stepped to the ball, Pierson had some familiarity with Walled Lake Central goalie Brian Ostepanko, who made three saves during a shootout in a Regional Semifinal win over Rochester.
“I have played with him a couple of times,” Pierson said. “I played with him this past season on a showcase team. He is a solid keeper and had a great season.
“I was pretty confident. I have a system that works, and I think it worked out. I was pretty confident I was going to the (right) side, and he guessed the other way.”
An understandably somber Walled Lake Central head coach Joel Sharpe said he had no issue with the foul call.
“I’m not going to argue that,” Sharpe said. “It looked like it. When you dive in and you put someone in the box the caliber of a player Pierson is, bad things are going to happen.”
Before Pierson’s goal, the game was a defensive struggle with few quality scoring chances; it seemed destined for a shootout.
With about 30 minutes remaining, Catholic Central (21-2-4) did start to tilt the field in its favor and carried the play, collecting eight shots and five corner kicks during the second half alone.
“We had a couple of guys that we changed around a little bit, but we executed the game plan better,” Pulice said. “We had the same formation, but we executed our game plan better. I thought myself it was a matter of time before Ryan got pulled down in the box. They were on him all game. It’s one of those things where you are trying to stick to your game plan and know it will work.”
Not helping the cause for Walled Lake Central (22-2-2) was a game-ending knee injury to senior defender and captain Karl Tavadia with 33 minutes to play.
Tavadia was the main player marking Pierson up to that point, and Sharpe said he had to move a forward back to help defend Pierson.
Walled Lake Central will bemoan not only its luck with Tavadia getting hurt, but also a glorious scoring chance that came up empty in the final minute of the first half.
With the half winding down, a ball was served into the Catholic Central box and deflected to the foot of a Walled Lake Central player who was right in front of the goal line with an open net in front of him.
But the volley went straight up in the air, hit the crossbar and landed on the goal line to allow Catholic Central enough time to recover defensively.
“Their hearts are breaking, and no matter how good of a season this is and how great of an accomplishment it was to get to the Finals, it’s never easy to console these guys for everything they put into it,” Sharpe said.
PHOTOS: (Top) Detroit Catholic Central’s Ryan Pierson celebrates connecting on a penalty kick that ended up as the Division 1 Final’s only goal. (Middle) The Shamrocks were able to stop this scoring attempt by Walled Lake Central’s Ray Daniels (8).
Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.