Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.
1st & Goal: 2024 Week 9 Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
October 24, 2024
Over the next 72 hours, high school football will end for many and championship hopes will restart for several, and we will honor and appreciate both.
This is the final weekend of the 2024 regular season, and just more than half of 600 varsity teams will conclude three months that for most were several years in the making. On Sunday, we’ll announce the pairings for this season’s MHSAA Playoffs, and 288 of those teams will begin another season they hope will end in late November with a Finals championship.
And here’s the best part in this moment: There’s still plenty to decide and memories to be made.
Games listed below are tonight unless noted, with results posting as they are reported all weekend on the MHSAA Scores page, and every division’s playoff points summary updating as well as scores are received. Full playoff brackets will be announced at 4:30 p.m. Sunday on FanDuel Sports Network (formerly Bally Sports Detroit), with game dates and times added to MHSAA.com throughout Monday.
Bay & Thumb
Davison (6-2) at Lapeer (5-3) WATCH
Although Grand Blanc wrapped up the Saginaw Valley League Red title last week with its 55-49 win over Davison, the Cardinals can bounce back and lock down not only second place but more importantly a spot among the top half on the Division 1 playoff list. Davison is No. 13 and Lapeer is No. 24, and those two and Grand Blanc have ended up in the same District the last two seasons. Last year Davison and Lapeer played each other back-to-back in Week 9 and then a District Semifinal, with the Cardinals winning 56-55 and 76-35.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Gladwin (6-2) at Frankenmuth (8-0) WATCH, Midland Dow (5-3) at Midland (7-1) WATCH, Port Huron Northern (6-2) at St. Clair (6-2), Ovid-Elsie (7-1) at Standish-Sterling (5-3) WATCH.
Greater Detroit
Detroit Martin Luther King (6-2) vs. Detroit Catholic Central (8-0) at Ford Field
This matchup will conclude a day of Catholic High School League Prep Bowl festivities at Ford Field, and it’s an incredible regular-season finale for the entire state as the 7:30 p.m. kickoff matches the CHSL Central champion Shamrocks against the Detroit Public School League Blue title-winning Crusaders. They last met in a 2019 season opener, won by DCC 24-22, but do have a common opponent this fall as King fell to Warren De La Salle Collegiate 35-13 in Week 2 and the Shamrocks doubled up the Pilots 31-14 in Week 5.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Birmingham Seaholm (6-2) at Birmingham Groves (8-0) WATCH, Saline (5-3) at Lake Orion (6-2) WATCH, Macomb Dakota (7-1) at Oxford (6-2) WATCH. SATURDAY Macomb Lutheran North (7-1) vs. Clarkston Everest Collegiate (8-0) at Ford Field.
Mid-Michigan
Belleville (8-0) at Howell (8-0) WATCH
This Kensington Lakes Activities Association championship game could be considered among Howell’s most notable opportunities in 60 years. The Highlanders are playing for a first perfect regular season since 1963 – according to Michigan-Football.com – and to achieve it they’ll have to overcome a team that has played in three straight Division 1 championship games and won them in 2021 and 2022. Every serious high school football fan in Michigan knows of Tigers four-year star quarterback Bryce Underwood, but Howell also will have to contend with a defense that hasn’t given up a point since Week 6. The Highlanders are familiar with top competition, however, opening with a win over Hudsonville before making their first undefeated league title run since 2008.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Hopkins (6-2) at Belding (7-1), Lansing Everett (6-2) at DeWitt (8-0) WATCH, Petoskey (8-0) at Clare (7-1) WATCH, Fenton (7-1) at Mason (6-2).
Northern Lower Peninsula
Fowler (8-0) at McBain (8-0)
Fowler is the top-ranked team in the Division 8 coaches poll, and McBain is No. 5 in Division 7. Both will carry impressive league title runs into the playoffs, as McBain’s in the Highland Conference included a four-point victory over Division 8 No. 4 Beal City and a seven-pointer over Evart, while Fowler was challenged by Division 7 No. 6 Pewamo-Westphalia in a 14-11 win and opened this season with a 20-6 victory over No. 9 Hudson. Fowler won last year’s Week 9 meeting with McBain 40-0, but this Ramblers team has avenged all three of its other 2023 regular-season defeats.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Croswell-Lexington (6-2) at Ogemaw Heights (7-1) WATCH, Kingsley (6-2) at Charlevoix (6-2) WATCH, Traverse City West (5-3) at Traverse City Central (4-4) WATCH, Traverse City St. Francis (6-2) at Boyne City (6-2) WATCH.
Southeast & Border
Dexter (8-0) at Chelsea (7-1) WATCH
This is a matchup of champions in the Southeastern Conference between the Red’s Dexter and White’s Chelsea, their second as nonleague opponents after years together in the White or the formerly one-division SEC. Chelsea won last year’s matchup 31-21 and owned this rivalry for several seasons until the Dreadnaughts claimed their 2022 contest. The Bulldogs are coming off a 21-20 win over Trenton last week but have otherwise marched through most of their schedule since a season-opening loss to still-undefeated Grand Rapids Northview. Dexter has won six straight by double digits after receiving a forfeit win from Saline in Week 2 and edging Livonia Franklin 27-26 to open the fall.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Ida (7-1) at Clinton (6-2) WATCH, Manchester (6-2) at Jonesville (5-3). SATURDAY Leslie (7-1) at Hanover-Horton (8-0), Kalamazoo United (7-1) vs. Jackson Lumen Christi (7-1) at Ford Field.
Southwest Corridor
Niles (7-1) at Paw Paw (8-0) WATCH
The Wolverine Conference championship comes down to a winner-take-all Week 9 matchup between these two for the second straight season, and with the only loss between them this time Niles’ to St. Joseph all the way back on Aug. 30. The Vikings defeated Paw Paw 56-18 to take the league title last year and again 42-13 for a District championship two weeks later. And there’s no arguing that Niles hasn’t dominated Wolverine play so far, outscoring its six league opponents by a combined 298-27 – although Paw Paw accomplished just about the same, outscoring then same teams by a combined 262-26. The Red Wolves also had early wins over eventual league champions Big Rapids and Berrien Springs before beginning the pursuit of their own.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY White Pigeon (7-1) at Bronson (6-2) WATCH, St. Joseph (7-1) at Portage Central (6-2), Constantine (6-2) at Lawton (6-2) WATCH, Kalamazoo Loy Norrix (5-3) at Kalamazoo Central (5-3) WATCH.
Upper Peninsula
Marquette (6-2) at Kingsford (8-0) WATCH
There are a few storylines here of note. Kingsford, coming off its first 10-win season last year since 2004, is seeking to finish off a first perfect regular season since 2002. But Marquette has a ton riding on this as well; the Sentinels, with their best record since 2021, sit three spots outside the Division 2 playoff field. They will be aiming to defeat the Flivvers for the first time since 2021, and then relying on their previous opponents from this season to have enough Week 9 success (and gain them enough bonus points) to boost them into the field.
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Negaunee (6-2) at Iron Mountain (8-0) WATCH. FRIDAY Bark River-Harris (5-3) at Menominee (7-1), Houghton (3-5) at Hancock (1-7), Escanaba (4-4) at Gladstone (1-7) WATCH.
West Michigan
Cedar Springs (7-1) at Coopersville (5-3)
These two and Lowell enter the final week of the first season of the River Cities Alliance all tied for first place – meaning the winner of this game is guaranteed at least a share of the championship, and Lowell can pick up a share as well with a win over Greenville. Cedar Springs has bounced back nicely from last season’s 4-5 finish, with its only loss to Lowell in Week 5. Coopersville has guaranteed a fourth-straight winning regular season but is in league title contention this late for the first time in several. The Broncos are coming off back-to-back losses, a two-point heartbreaker against Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills and then a 24-7 defeat to a league champion in Big Rapids last week.
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Grand Rapids West Catholic (6-2) at Zeeland West (7-1) WATCH. FRIDAY Rockford (6-2) at East Kentwood (5-3) WATCH, East Grand Rapids (5-3) at Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (6-2), Manistee (5-3) at Mason County Central (7-1).
8-Player
Alcona (8-0) at Deckerville (8-0) WATCH
The 8-player slate this week has multiple league-title deciders – but this one could impact the pursuit of the Division 1 championship over the next month. Deckerville is No. 1 in 8-player Division 1 playoff-point average at 37.750, and Alcona is just behind at No. 2 and 37.542. Of course other numbers come into play, both will be need to win their first three playoff games, and maps aren’t even drawn yet – but if they end up on the same side of the bracket, tonight’s matchup could end up determining which teams hosts a Semifinal rematch if that becomes reality.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Powers North Central (7-1) at Crystal Falls Forest Park (8-0), Gaylord St. Mary (7-1) at Indian River Inland Lakes (8-0), Pittsford (7-1) at Climax-Scotts (7-1), Munising (6-2) at Pickford (8-0).
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PHOTO A pair of Ovid-Elsie defenders close in on New Lothrop’s Michael Schachter (9) during the Marauders’ 42-0 Week 8 victory. (Photo by Click by Christine McCallister.)