Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '18

October 21, 2018

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

For a fading moment, we thought we saw the Big Dipper floating through the second floor of the MHSAA office Sunday morning.

Michigan’s northernmost high school in Calumet held the handle – but the only place the rest of the Region pointed was to questions about how we could come up with such a disjointed scenario for this season’s Division 6 Playoffs.

Below – as has become an annual tradition – we’ll answer that question and a few more about this year’s selection process.

Our mission Sunday was to map 213 automatic qualifiers for 11-player football – and a record 43 additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 records – plus our top 32 8-player teams across 10 divisions of playoffs that will conclude with the latter Nov. 17 at Northern Michigan University and 11-player Nov. 23-24 at Ford Field.

As often noted in the past, this process didn’t start Sunday morning – but months and in some cases more than a year ago when athletic directors began scheduling games for this fall. We make sure all are loaded into our system by early summer, and then follow every score/cancellation/forfeit/additional change through Week 9’s final games – including this season those for 46 teams from other states or Ontario that played Michigan schools and needed to be followed as well because their successes affected MHSAA teams’ strengths of schedule.

Now that the maps are drawn, we line up all that will come with the next five weeks of games including assigning officials, gathering potential Semifinal sites and continuing our work with our Finals hosts to create memorable experiences as teams play for championships.

So we’re off. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2018.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions plus a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. Go to this page on MHSAA.com to see the pairings in full.

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, and in 2017 a second division of 8-player football was introduced.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent 11-player playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors and coaches). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

As noted above, this season there were 213 automatic qualifiers for the 11-player field by win total with the final 43 additional qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only five Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so with those five we added 13 teams from Class A and B and 12 from Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by red dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The 8-player process is different for team selection and similar for designation of Regionals. We take the top 32 teams in 8-player based on playoff point average as our field, then re-sort those 32 by enrollment – the 16 biggest make up Division 1, followed by the next 16 in Division 2. There are no automatic qualifiers by record for 8-player.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 (or in 8-player, 16) dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2018

We always start with CONGRATULATIONS: And this season they go first to Detroit Community, Detroit Public Safety Academy and Dexter, which made the MHSAA Football Playoffs for the first time. Of 611 football varsities across the state, all but 12 have made the playoffs at least once. Rockford missed out on an automatic bid with a Week 9 loss, but received an additional qualifier berth to set the record by making the MHSAA Playoffs for the 24th straight season. Crystal Falls Forest Park (22 seasons), Stevensville Lakeshore (21), Macomb Dakota (18), Climax-Scotts (16) and Grand Rapids West Catholic (16) also extended their stays on the list for longest MHSAA playoff streaks.

Break the tie: We again had to break a tie (actually two for District rounds) as teams that will or could meet ended up with the same playoff point averages. Ties are broken by head-to-head competition first – if the teams played each other during the regular season – followed by opponents’ winning percentage as the second criteria and then a coin flip if those two won’t do it. Our tie-breaks this season both took place in Division 4 – Grand Rapids South Christian received a home game against Wyoming Godwin Heights this week and St. Clair will host North Branch if they meet in a District Final. There are more possible meetings of teams with same averages in later rounds, and those ties will be broken the same way.

What is up with Division 6: Last year I had a “worst map ever,” and two of them this year would be in contention. Division 6 is the first – but the explanation for how we came up with what we did is simple. Region 1 is made up of two Districts with six schools from the northern Lower Peninsula and two from the Upper Peninsula. So however the Districts were sliced, two Lower Peninsula schools had to go with the U.P. And we settled this one strictly by comparing highway mileages of those Lower Peninsula teams to Mackinac Bridge (again, the only way to travel between the peninsulas). In the end, we placed Elk Rapids (93 miles) and Traverse City St. Francis (124) with Escanaba and Ishpeming Westwood because they are closest to the Bridge – followed by Kingsley (126), Maple City Glen Lake (144), Beaverton (161) and Tawas (168). The optics are strange – it may look like Glen Lake is driving past Elk Rapids and St. Francis on the way to Beaverton this week and potentially Tawas next. But Glen Lake’s route still travels south of those two schools this week (and depending on its chosen route on the way to Tawas as well), making everything fit – strangely looking, but nonetheless.

Lake Huron tour: You could see most of the American side by checking out this week’s Region 2 games in 8-player Division 2. This map also looks odd – there’s a bridge crossing and a drive around Saginaw Bay. Yet, after drawing this at least two more ways, we settled here – although Region 2 looks a little odd, all four teams are east of I-75 and north of Bay City.

Get your zoom on: We don’t enjoy splitting up teams that live next door to each other, but sometimes it’s a must. In Division 7 we were able to keep all eight Detroit-area and southeastern schools in Region 4, but the distance between its Districts came down to a few miles along I-96. In Division 2, we had to factor in outliers Port Huron Northern and Temperance Bedford – and the resulting Districts ended up splitting Livonia Churchill and Livonia Franklin.

At the end of the day …

I include this every year, but we draw the maps not knowing which schools are represented by the dots. At one point Sunday morning, I was wrong about which division we were considering at the time – and that’s a good thing. For the map drawing portion, it doesn’t matter.

But now that we know who is going where, here’s a glance at some stories that might emerge this week:

• We’ve got rivalries, like Portage Northern at Portage Central and Birmingham Groves at Birmingham Seaholm in Division 2, St. Johns at DeWitt and Haslett at East Lansing in Division 3, Constantine at Schoolcraft in Division 6 and Waterford Our Lady at Clarkston Everest Collegiate in Division 8 – plus Kingston at Deckerville in 8-player Division 1. There are many more we could mention – and some potential feuds renewed in two weeks as well depending on who wins this round.

• The Macomb Area Red, generally considered one of the strongest leagues annually in the state, sent four of six teams to the Division 1 playoffs – and they’re all in the same District. Champion Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (9-0) takes on Utica Eisenhower this week, and with a win would face either Macomb Dakota or Romeo after defeating both by just seven points during the regular season.

• Perhaps the most intriguing opener statewide is River Rouge (8-1) at Detroit Martin Luther King (7-2) in Division 3. Neither gets tested much during their league seasons, but both played tough nonleague opponents and the winner will be considered a favorite to make it to Ford Field.

• Farmington Hills Harrison holds the records for most MHSAA Finals appearances (18) and titles (13) and will play its final playoffs in Division 4 after finishing Division 3 runner-up a year ago. The school is closing next spring. Coach John Herrington is the winningest in state history with 441 wins and counting against only 111 losses (and a tie).

• There are a few annual powers not in the bracket this season – most notably Lowell, Muskegon Catholic Central and Menominee – and others like Rockford, Mendon and Grand Rapids West Catholic got in as additional qualifiers. West Catholic has won five straight Division 5 championships and opens at Hudsonville Unity Christian. The Falcons won the 2013 title after also entering as a 5-4 team.

• There are 34 teams entering the playoffs unbeaten, but only four Districts have multiple – Manistee and Reed City share one in Division 5, Traverse City St. Francis and Calumet in Division 6, Reading and Ottawa Lake Whiteford in Division 8, and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian and Morrice in 8-player Division 1. All of those potential matchups would happen in 11-Player District or 8-Player Regional Finals.

• This will be the eighth year of the 8-player tournament, and in Division 1 only Deckerville in 2012 has won an MHSAA championship in this format. In Division 2, reigning champion Crystal Falls Forest Park opens with 2015-16 back-to-back champion Powers North Central.

• In 8-player, three teams with 5-4 records didn’t make the field of 32, and two teams with 4-5 records advanced. This is the reality of measuring by playoff point average. Fife Lake Forest Area and Webberville are the 4-5 teams, and their opponents this season won more than 61 percent of their games. The three teams at 5-4 and one at 4-4 had opponents’ winning percentages between 38-56 percent.

Every school and every community can tell a story of making these playoffs, and over the next five weeks the fortunate will continue to write chapters filled with moments that will never be forgotten. We’re looking forward to watching them all unfold.

PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 6 map shows an odd-looking scenario with two Traverse City-area teams in the same District as two from the Upper Peninsula. (Middle) The 8-player Division 2 map shows how schools are connected to a District along the Lake Huron shoreline.

1st & Goal: 2024 Playoffs Week 3 Preview

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

November 14, 2024

Winter practices have started, and high school hockey teams actually began games this week.

MI Student AidBut for 72 schools across the state, it’s still football season – and they’d like to continue playing as many November games as possible.

This third week of MHSAA Playoffs features four Semifinals in 8-player – and we switch up the “1st & Goal” format to feature those games first below. We also have 32 11-Player Regional Finals, with winners this weekend needing just one more to book trips to Ford Field.

Games are tonight unless noted. Tickets for 11-Player Regional Finals are $9, and $10 for 8-player Semifinals, and more than 35 of the 36 games to be played will be streamed live on the NFHS Network. Scores and pairings will be updated all weekend at MHSAA.com.

8-Player Division 1

Indian River Inland Lakes (11-0) at Pickford (11-0), 1 p.m. Saturday

This is rematch from a year ago, when Inland Lakes won 12-0 on the way to finishing Division 1 runner-up. The Bulldogs have had only two single-digit games all season, including defeating Alcona 32-26 last week. Senior quarterback Aiden Fenstermaker is leading the march again, running for 1,463 yards and 22 touchdowns and throwing for 831 and 19, respectively. Pickford is seeking to make the Finals for the first time since 2019 and hasn’t played a game closer than 28 points. Senior quarterback Tommy Storey also is a two-way force, running for 1,341 yards and 24 TDs and throwing for 898 and 16 scores.

Mendon (10-1) at Deckerville (11-0), 1 p.m. Saturday

Mendon is just two years removed from playing for the Division 2 title, and avenged its only loss this fall by downing Climax-Scotts to open the playoffs. Junior Owen Gorham has run for 2,114 yards and 42 touchdowns – the rushing TDs already ranking third all-time in MHSAA history – and junior JT Lux follows with 1,160 yards and 14 scores on the ground. Deckerville is playing in its second-straight Semifinal and looking to make its first Final since 2017. The Eagles are averaging 49 points per game and haven’t scored fewer than 30.

8-Player Division 2

Onekama (10-1) at Crystal Falls Forest Park (10-1), Noon Saturday

Forest Park also avenged its lone loss during the playoffs, downing Powers North Central 34-12 last week, and the Trojans also are playing to get back to a championship game for the first time since 2017. Running back Dax Huuki is just a sophomore but leads the rushing attack with 1,267 yards and 18 touchdowns. Onekama won a combined eight games over the past four seasons before bouncing back big to reach the Semifinals for the first time since 2018, when the Portagers finished Division 2 runner-up. Junior quarterback Luke Bradford stands tall at 6-foot-5 and has thrown for 1,175 yards and 11 TDs and run for nine scores. Onekama fell to Marion in Week 2 but defeated the Eagles to open the postseason.

Morrice (10-1) at Britton Deerfield (10-1), 1 p.m. Saturday

Britton Deerfield is another fascinating comeback story, having finished 2-7 a year ago. The Patriots are in their fourth season of 8-player football and playing in their first Semifinal in either format since the school formed from its predecessors in 2011. They’ve run for 4,140 yards this fall, led by senior Luke Wiser with 1,549 with 27 touchdowns. Morrice will play in its third Semifinal over the last six seasons seeking to reach the championship game for the first time since winning Division 1 in 2018. The Orioles too have avenged their lone loss this fall, to Portland St. Patrick, and get it done with a defense giving up only 11.4 points per game and a pair of senior 1,000-yard rushers in Joel Fisher (1,464/18 TDs) and Wyatt Cartier (1,253/24).

11-Player Division 1

Belleville (10-1) at Detroit Catholic Central (11-0)

Even with Belleville’s loss to Howell in Week 9, this has remained one of the most anticipated matchups in the state all season as it’s been assumed these two powers would meet at some point. The last time, Belleville defeated DCC in a 2022 Regional Final, 33-10. After facing seven playoff teams plus an Ohio state title contender, the Shamrocks shouldn’t be daunted by Belleville’s success and star power. But that said, the Tigers are striding coming off their best win this fall, 42-7 last week over Saline.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Grand Blanc (9-2) at Rochester Adams (9-2), Detroit Cass Tech (9-2) at Macomb Dakota (10-1). SATURDAY Hudsonville (10-1) at Howell (11-0).

11-Player Division 2

Warren De La Salle Collegiate (8-2) at Birmingham Groves (11-0)

De La Salle has finished at Ford Field seven of the last 10 seasons, and two of the last six years did so after defeating Groves in Semifinals – including 43-15 in 2022. Groves is playing to reach a championship game for the first time, and the Falcons have never been in better position taking on the Pilots after tying their program record for wins last week. Groves hasn’t been challenged in a while, but does have victories over Harper Woods and West Bloomfield this fall. De La Salle is coming off handing Grosse Pointe South its only loss this season and will attempt a repeat performance tonight.  

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Portage Central (8-3) at Byron Center (10-1), Saginaw Heritage (8-3) at East Lansing (8-3), Orchard Lake St. Mary’s (8-3) at Gibraltar Carlson (10-1).

11-Player Division 3

Petoskey (11-0) at DeWitt (11-0)

Petoskey also has set a record for wins this season and will play in a Regional Final for the third time and first since 2014. The Northmen have navigated only two single-digit games this fall and prepped for this run in part with a 41-21 win over Clare in Week 9 – notable as Clare also was a league champion. DeWitt presents arguably their mightiest challenge as the Panthers are undefeated this late for the first time since their Division 3 championship season of 2020 and putting up 55.6 points per game despite a schedule that has three opponents also playing for Regional titles.  

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (9-2) at Zeeland West (10-1), Mason (9-2) at Walled Lake Western (11-0), River Rouge (6-4) at Detroit Martin Luther King (8-3).

11-Player Division 4

Portland (11-0) at Niles (10-1)

For the second-straight season, Portland is undefeated playing Niles for a Regional championship, and last year advanced with a 21-14 win over the Vikings. The Raiders actually have played an identical playoff schedule as 2023 so far, and Niles has enjoyed plenty of familiarity as well with District wins over a pair of regular-season opponents from the Wolverine Conference. The Vikings’ shutout of Edwardsburg last week was their third in four weeks and sixth of the season, providing an intriguing challenge for a Raiders offense almost keeping pace with last year’s scoring at 41.5 points per game.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Grand Rapids South Christian (7-4) at Whitehall (8-3), Haslett (8-3) at Goodrich (10-1), Macomb Lutheran North (10-1) at Harper Woods (8-3).

11-Player Division 5

Kalamazoo United (9-2) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (7-4)

This will be the fourth time United will play for a Regional title over the last seven seasons, and if the Titans are to advance for the first time they’ll have to deal with a GRCC program that has reached Ford Field six of the last eight years. After ending the regular season on a three-game skid but with all three defeats by single digits, the Cougars have impressed in the playoffs including squeaking past Grand Rapids West Catholic 21-18 last week. The Titans have won two rematches to open this postseason and faced playoff teams their last six games, losing only to Jackson Lumen Christi (39-21 in Week 9) along the way.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Gladwin (8-3) at Frankenmuth (11-0), Armada (10-1) at Pontiac Notre Dame Prep (9-1), Ann Arbor Father Gabriel Richard (7-4) at Flat Rock (9-2).

11-Player Division 6

Detroit Central (8-3) at Marine City (9-2)

Only three weeks ago, Marine City closed the regular season with a 37-15 win over Central. But as we’ve seen over the first two rounds of the playoffs, rematches can flip quickly, and the Mariners surely won’t be looking past this one as they pursue what would be a first Regional title since 2021. That first matchup arrived with Central coming off a close win over Detroit Denby for a Detroit Public School League City championship, and since that defeat the Trailblazers have won their playoff games by a combined 69-24. Marine City has picked up momentum as well, especially with last week’s 38-28 win over Warren Michigan Collegiate.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Boyne City (9-2) at Reed City (9-2). SATURDAY Lansing Catholic (8-3) at Newaygo (9-2), Constantine (8-3) at Jackson Lumen Christi (10-1).

11-Player Division 7

Schoolcraft (10-1) at Hudson (10-1)

The eight teams remaining in Division 7 have a combined seven losses, making all four matchups among the most intriguing as a group. These two are meeting for the first time since facing off in a 2001 Division 6 Semifinal, Hudson on a 10-game winning streak this season and Schoolcraft losing only in Week 3 by two points to Division 6 Constantine. Defense may dominate; the Eagles are giving up 9.9 points per game and just shut out a Lawton offense that averaged 35, while Hudson is giving up 8.4 ppg and hasn’t allowed more than seven since the first weekend in October.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Leslie (10-1) at Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (11-0). SATURDAY North Muskegon (10-1) at Menominee (10-1), Pewamo-Westphalia (9-2) at Millington (10-0).

11-Player Division 8

Harbor Beach (11-0) at Fowler (11-0), Saturday

While featuring two of the state’s smallest 11-player schools, this might draw an above-proportion amount of attention as one of only two matchups of undefeated contenders in any 11-player bracket. Harbor Beach is seeking its first Regional title since 2018, and Fowler its first since 2019. Fowler finished the regular season third in Division 8 playoff-point average, and Harbor Beach downed top-ranked Clarkston Everest Collegiate 37-7 last week. The Eagles’ best three wins were against Division 7 teams, including two still playing.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Detroit Loyola (5-6) at Riverview Gabriel Richard (9-1). SATURDAY Beal City (9-2) at Iron Mountain (11-0), Reading (7-4) at Decatur (10-1).

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PHOTO Armada’s Jackson Malburg breaks into the open during last week’s District Final win over Hazel Park. (Photo by Adam Sheehan Photography.)