Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

1st & Goal: 2021 Week 1 Preview

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

August 26, 2021

Welcome to what might be the most anticipated opening weekend in Michigan high school football history.

No one is saying life is back to pre-pandemic normal, of course. But after last football season saw multiple delays, an abbreviated regular season and altered playoff format, it’s hard not to be excited about most things beginning “as they always have” this weekend across our state.

And there are plenty of opportunities to dig in and enjoy.

Check out your local game, or one of those highlighted below – including a number of games from three showcase events, the Battle at the Big House at University of Michigan, the Xenith Prep Kick Off Classic at Wayne State and the Vehicle City Gridiron Classic at Kettering’s Atwood Stadium. There are also plenty of opportunities to tune in from home – more than 150 games will be streamed live on the NFHS Network or by partner Bally Sports Detroit, including two televised live on BSD’s primary cable channel. (Click for details.)

As in seasons past, our weekly football previews will point out intriguing games from every region of the state – opportunities to see a great story unfold no matter where fans live or are visiting that weekend. Records below are from the 2020 season. (Games from the aforementioned showcases are listed in the region of one of the competitors.) 

Bay & Thumb

Davison (10-1) vs. Clarkston (7-1), Friday at U-M

A number of teams from the I-75 corridor and particularly the Flint suburbs will be playing showcase games this weekend, and this might be the biggest as well as a preview of a more significant rematch to come. Clarkston’s lone loss last season came by seven to Grand Blanc in a District Semifinal – a week before the Wolves would have faced Davison, which suffered its only defeat at Ford Field against West Bloomfield in the Division 1 championship game. The Cardinals also were Division 1 champs in 2019, with Clarkston most recently making the Finals as Division 1 runner-up in 2018.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Lapeer (3-4) vs. Grand Rapids Catholic Central (10-0) at U-M, Frankenmuth (11-1) vs. Goodrich (6-2) at Atwood Stadium. FRIDAY East Lansing (8-1) vs. Grand Blanc (7-2) at Atwood Stadium, Midland Dow (5-3) vs. Fenton (7-1) at U-M.

Greater Detroit

Detroit Catholic Central (9-1) vs. Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (3-4), Thursday at WSU

This might be the premier matchup of the Wayne State games, and also one where a 2020 record should be ignored when making that argument. Chippewa Valley may have lost four games last season, but those defeats came by a combined 21 points and none by more than nine. DCC, meanwhile, suffered its only loss to Davison, in a Division 1 Regional Final. The Shamrocks were especially tough defensively last fall, giving up 10 points per game, while winning a Detroit Catholic League Central that sent Warren De La Salle Collegiate to the Division 2 championship game.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Canton (8-1) vs. Dearborn Fordson (5-3) at Wayne State, Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice (7-2) at Macomb Dakota (6-2). FRIDAY Oak Park (5-6) at Orchard Lake St. Mary's (2-4). SATURDAY Southfield Arts & Technology (3-4) vs. Detroit Cass Tech (8-1) at Wayne State.

Mid-Michigan

DeWitt (12-0) vs. Traverse City Central (9-2), Thursday at U-M

The Panthers are coming off their first Finals championship, claiming the Division 3 title last season, and might be even better on offense this fall with multiple playmakers returning after the team scored at least 37 points in all but one game. Central missed making Ford Field by one win, falling to eventual champion Muskegon Mona Shores in a Division 2 Semifinal. The Trojans scored at least 30 points in all but one game last season and should be a handful in an intriguing Michigan Stadium clash.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Olivet (7-2) at Charlotte (2-5). FRIDAY Freeland (8-2) at Clare (7-1), Fowler (6-3) at Carson City-Crystal (6-2), Lansing Everett (did not play) at Lansing Sexton (did not play).

Northern Lower Peninsula

Reed City (8-0) at Cadillac (7-3), Thursday

Rewind again to when the MHSAA football season concluded at Ford Field, and Cadillac was one of the surprises of championship weekend. The Vikings reached the Finals for the first time, and while being held scoreless by Detroit Country Day in the Division 4 championship game they also put up one of their most impressive defensive performances holding the Yellowjackets to 13 points. Reed City’s story, though, had to feel a little unfinished – after starting out with eight straight wins, the Coyotes’ last playoff game before the COVID-related break in November was canceled, as was their Regional Final when play resumed in January.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Traverse City West (6-2) vs. Midland (8-1) at U-M, Beaverton (6-2) at Lake City (2-4), Houghton Lake (4-3) at Maple City Glen Lake (5-3), Kingsley (8-0) at McBain (6-1).

Southeast & Border

New Lothrop (11-0) at Jackson Lumen Christi (5-5), Thursday

These two have made a combined six trips to Ford Field with five championships over the last five seasons. New Lothrop is coming off its second Division 7 title in three seasons in January, while Lumen Christi was stopped short in the Regional Finals – a week before it would have met New Lothrop with a Finals bid on the line. This is also an intriguing matchup between the state’s longest-serving and third-winningest football coach, Lumen’s Herb Brogan (373-89 over 42 seasons), against a younger leader on the path to join the all-time greats in Clint Galvas (129-15 over 13).

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Ithaca (8-1) at Hudson (4-4). FRIDAY Ottawa Lake Whiteford (6-3) at Blissfield (8-1), Michigan Center (6-2) at Homer (5-3), Saline (8-2) vs. Hudsonville (5-3) at U-M.

Southwest Corridor

Portage Central (3-5) at Stevensville Lakeshore (6-3) , Thursday

After not awarding a league champion last season because of the abbreviated regular-season schedule, the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference gets rolling immediately with two frequent contenders facing off. Central and Lakeshore didn’t play last season, but Central has won two straight in the otherwise-annual series.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Lake Odessa Lakewood (3-4) at Battle Creek Pennfield (5-4), Grand Ledge (5-3) at Coldwater (5-2), Cassopolis (2-5) at Schoolcraft (9-2). FRIDAY Battle Creek Lakeview (5-3) vs. Battle Creek Harper Creek (5-3).

Upper Peninsula

Negaunee (6-4) at Iron Mountain (7-2), Thursday

Once the regular season finally got started last fall, the Upper Peninsula proved quickly captivating as the status of best team north of Mackinac Bridge seemed to change hands weekly. Iron Mountain was the last remaining in the playoffs, reaching the Division 8 Regional Finals and missing the Semifinals with a one-point defeat. Both of these teams stand to be in the conversation again not only across the peninsula and statewide but more locally as the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper (and Silver) reinstates league play after also not awarding a 2020 champ.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Gladstone (2-4) at Calumet (4-4), Bark River-Harris (5-3) at Gwinn (4-4), Houghton (2-3) at Ishpeming Westwood (5-2), Sault Ste. Marie (6-3) at St. Ignace (1-6).

West Michigan

Edwardsburg (9-1) at Montague (12-0), Thursday

The anticipation for this matchup should rival any this weekend including for the games being played at the three opening showcases. Montague put together one of the most impressive 2020 runs in any division on the way to claiming the Division 6 title but enters this fall with a new coach and quarterback. Edwardsburg missed returning to Ford Field with a two-point loss to Cadillac in a Division 4 Semifinal and likely would have reached double-digit wins for a sixth-straight season if not for the abbreviated schedule.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Zeeland West (5-1) at East Grand Rapids (6-4), Muskegon Mona Shores (12-0) at Lowell (4-4). FRIDAY Grand Rapids South Christian (8-2) at Grand Rapids Christian (4-4), Hudsonville Unity Christian (7-0) at Hopkins (5-2).

8-Player

Gaylord St. Mary (7-2) at Pickford (7-2), Friday

These two won’t see each other again when the playoffs roll around – Pickford is in Division 1 this season and St. Mary in Division 2. But if recent history serves, this opener could be a primer for the kind of matchup both could earn a few months from now. Pickford made the Regional Finals last season and has pushed at least that far into the playoffs the last five seasons. Gaylord St. Mary is coming off two straight Regional Finals trips, both in Division 1 as well before moving into Division 2 for this fall.

Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Mendon (6-2 in 11-player) at Vandercook Lake (4-2). FRIDAY Merrill (6-2) at Marion (8-2), Wyoming Tri-unity Christian (3-5) at Martin (8-2), Onaway (6-1) at Indian River Inland Lakes (8-2).

PHOTO: Football stadium lights, like these last season at Muskegon High School, will brighten the sky again for the 2021 season beginning this weekend. (Photo by Tim Reilly.)