Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

1st & Goal: 2024 Playoffs Week 2 Preview

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

November 8, 2024

One week gone, half the 288-team field remaining, and matchups that much more competitive with trophies on the line.

MI Student AidThe first hardware of this season’s MHSAA Football Playoffs will be awarded this weekend, as 64 teams will earn 11-player District championships and eight will celebrate 8-player Regional titles.

Games are tonight unless noted. Tickets for both 11 and 8-player rounds this weekend cost $7, and more than 60 of the 72 games to be played will be streamed live on the NFHS Network. Scores and pairings will be updated all weekend at MHSAA.com.

11-Player Division 1

Saline (7-3) at Belleville (9-1)

These two have collided in the playoffs the last two seasons, Belleville winning last year’s District Final matchup 65-14 and in 2022 by a 62-44 count. The Tigers bounced back from their Week 9 one-point loss to Howell with a 68-0 win over Ann Arbor Pioneer last week, and Saline is here after downing Northville 37-7. Counting on-field scores from three forfeit losses to start the season, the Hornets have allowed just under eight points per game this fall – and no more than seven since Week 4. But they’ll get their greatest challenge again from a Tigers team averaging nearly 44 ppg.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Utica Eisenhower (8-2) at Macomb Dakota (9-1), Clarkston (7-3) at Rochester Adams (8-2), Oxford (7-3) at Grand Blanc (8-2).

11-Player Division 2

Byron Center (9-1) at Muskegon Mona Shores (9-1)

Their first meeting, in Week 4, was an Ottawa-Kent Conference Green opener and ended up deciding that league’s championship for Mona Shores with a 14-12 win. The Sailors’ defeat came two weeks ago, to Toledo Central Catholic by just a point 14-13. Otherwise, since that first matchup, Mona Shores has posted three shutouts and won its remaining league games by an average of nearly 35 points per, while Byron Center won its four other league games by just under 22 ppg including 17-14 over Muskegon High – which Shores defeated by 15.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Birmingham Seaholm (7-3) at Birmingham Groves (10-0), Warren De La Salle Collegiate (7-2) at Grosse Pointe South (10-0), Saginaw Heritage (7-3) at Midland (9-1).

11-Player Division 3

Zeeland West (9-1) at St. Joseph (9-1)

This will be their second District Final matchup in three years; West won in 2022 36-18. The Dux actually are playing for a third-straight District title and in their ninth playoff games over the last three seasons with a 6-2 record across that string and both losses by seven or fewer points. St. Joseph – which did defeat Zeeland West in 2021 during a Semifinal run – lost only to Mattawan this season and had nonleague wins over eventual playoff teams Niles and Edwardsburg, while West’s loss came to still-undefeated Hudsonville Unity Christian with nonleague wins over playoff qualifiers Grand Rapids West Catholic and Whitehall.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Coopersville (7-3) at Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (8-2), River Rouge (5-4) at Riverview (9-1), Mount Pleasant (6-4) at Petoskey (10-0).

11-Player Division 4

Freeland (9-1) at Goodrich (9-1)

A 21-20 Week 8 loss to Frankenmuth is all that has separated Freeland from an undefeated run so far, and Goodrich shares that opponent having fallen to the Eagles 22-0 in their season opener. The Martians have scored at last 42 points in every game since and given up only 7.3 per game over their last nine. Freeland has given up more than 20 points two other times this fall, but scored more than 50 points both times to win those matchups – including 51-21 last weekend over Lake Fenton, which Goodrich defeated 62-0 in Week 3.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Edwardsburg (7-3) at Niles (9-1), Hastings (9-1) at Portland (10-0), Dearborn Divine Child (7-3) at Harper Woods (7-3).

11-Player Division 5

Belding (9-1) at Frankenmuth (10-0)

In addition to Freeland and Goodrich (noted above), Frankenmuth also has turned away a challenge from Gladwin among teams playing for District titles tonight. But Belding is a dangerous foe riding a nine-game winning streak since losing its opener to Division 4 Ionia. The Black Knights rocked the O-K Silver, winning their league games on average by 42 points per, and opened the playoffs with a 52-30 win over Saginaw Swan Valley – which Frankenmuth defeated similarly 63-27 in Week 2.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Grand Rapids Catholic Central (6-4) at Grand Rapids West Catholic (7-3), Corunna (8-2) at Pontiac Notre Dame Prep (8-1), Berrien Springs (7-3) at Kalamazoo United (8-2).

11-Player Division 6

Marine City (8-2) vs. Warren Michigan Collegiate (9-1) at Warren Lincoln, Saturday

Warren Michigan Collegiate also is riding a nine-game winning streak since falling 27-24 to Clarkston Everest Collegiate in Week 1. The Cougars will carry a 42-point-per-game average and four straight games reaching 50 into this matchup. Marine City has reached 50 three of its last four games as well, with its only defeats in the season opener to Division 5 Armada – by a point – and 39-20 in Week 6 to Division 4 Marysville.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Standish-Sterling (7-3) at Reed City (8-2), Central Montcalm (9-1) at Newaygo (8-2), Ida (9-1) at Jackson Lumen Christi (9-1).

11-Player Division 7

Traverse City St. Francis (7-3) at Menominee (9-1), Saturday

Both of these teams have trips to Ford Field once over the last two seasons – St. Francis as Division 7 runner-up in 2022 and Menominee as the same a year ago. The Maroons are in a District Final for the fifth time in six seasons after rebounding from their lone loss by outscoring Bark River Harris and Houghton Lake by a combined 103-6 over the last two weeks. St. Francis lost two of its last three games, but started the playoffs with a 41-16 win over Charlevoix.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Pewamo-Westphalia (8-2) at Ithaca (10-0), Union City (9-1) at Hudson (9-1), McBain (9-1) at North Muskegon (9-1).

11-Player Division 8

Harbor Beach (10-0) at Clarkston Everest Collegiate (9-1)

This is part of one of the most competitive Regionals in the state, regardless of division, as Harbor Beach opened last week against reigning champion Ubly and Everest has won four straight District titles – and with the winner this weekend facing either undefeated Fowler or surging Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary next week. Harbor Beach blanked the Bearcats 35-0 and has two straight shutouts and five total this season. Everest has four including last week’s against Burton Bentley – a bounce-back from a 17-14 loss to Division 4 Macomb Lutheran North to close the regular season.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Saugatuck (7-3) at Decatur (9-1), Manchester (8-2) at Riverview Gabriel Richard (8-1), Beal City (8-2) at Maple City Glen Lake (9-1).

8-Player Division 1

Martin (8-1) at Mendon (9-1), Saturday

Whichever team emerges from this side of the bracket to reach the Superior Dome will have conquered an incredible road. Both are one-score losses from undefeated this fall and avenged their regular-season losses last week – with the winner of this matchup to see either undefeated Deckerville or surging Kingston in a Semifinal. The key matchup may be Mendon’s rushing attack – playing the lead role for an offense scoring 65 points per game – vs. Martin’s defense that has allowed at least 20 points six times but more than 24 only once.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Indian River Inland Lakes (10-0) at Alcona (9-1), Kingston (8-2) at Deckerville (10-0). SATURDAY Ishpeming (7-2) at Pickford (10-0).

8-Player Division 2

Powers North Central (9-1) at Crystal Falls Forest Park (9-1)

Just two weeks ago, North Central finished a Great Lakes Eight Conference West title run with a 45-34 win over the Trojans. Jets senior Lane Gorzinski ran for 234 yards and five touchdowns and threw for 169 and another score as his team scored more points than Forest Park gave up over their other four league games combined (33). The Trojans bounced back with a 60-0 win over Bellaire last week, while North Central enjoyed a 58-0 shutout of Gaylord St. Mary.

Other Regional Finals FRIDAY Pittsford (8-2) at Britton Deerfield (9-1), Onekama (9-1) at Au Gres-Sims (9-1), SATURDAY Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart (7-3) at Morrice (9-1).

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PHOTO Howell players huddle in anticipation of taking the field before their Week 9 win over Belleville. (Photo courtesy of State Champs! Sports Network.)