Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
Yale's Dykstra Wasting No Time Showing Superior Multi-Sport Potential
By
Paul Costanzo
Special for MHSAA.com
March 28, 2024
Sadie Dykstra’s already long list of accomplishments from less than two years of high school – three all-state medals, multiple all-conference awards and a league MVP to name a few – may seem shocking.
And to most, it justifiably is.
But it’s come as little surprise for those in Yale who saw her grow up and do, well, anything.
“I’ve always known that she’s kind of special,” said Yale boys track coach and Dykstra family friend Brian Bearss. “She was that kid that, when other kids would be playing and learning how to ride their bikes, here comes Sadie and she’s yelling, ‘Look at this,’ and standing on the seat riding the bike. She’s always been exceptional as far as being an athlete.”
Dykstra is entering her sophomore track & field season at Yale and has already established herself as one of the best female athletes in the state. Want to argue against that? Check out this résumé:
Volleyball: Two years varsity, second-team all-Blue Water Area Conference as a sophomore.
Basketball: Two-time first-team all-BWAC selection, BWAC all-defense and BWAC MVP as a sophomore, BCAM all-state honorable mention as a freshman, sophomore all-state honors still pending.
Track: Unbeaten in the BWAC as a freshman with four league titles (long jump, 100 hurdles, 300 hurdles and 1,600 meter relay), three all-state finishes at 2023 Lower Peninsula Division 2 Finals (fourth in long jump, fifth in 100 hurdles, sixth in 300 hurdles).
Again, just a sophomore.
“I can’t believe that I get to coach her,” Yale girls track coach Ashley Garofalo said. “She has a drive and a mindset that I can’t teach somebody. Nobody can teach you to have this. She gives every single thing that she has in every single sport. I think it does help when you’re so good at it. It makes you want to do it more.”
Basketball gets Dykstra’s most attention and it’s the one she’d most like to play at the next level. The 5-foot-11 guard is getting interest already from Division I college programs.
But it wouldn’t be right to say her heart is with one sport or another.
“I enjoy all my sports,” Dykstra said. “I like all my teams. I have a different team for each one, and I get along with all those girls. I think each one, it flows into the next one, and helps strengthen things for my other sports. Volleyball helps my legs for basketball. In basketball, I’m getting in shape for track.”
You don’t have to look far to find where Dykstra gained her love for athletics. Her parents, Kerry and Brad, both played basketball at Calvin College. Kerry graduated as Calvin’s all-time leading scorer in 1999 and is still sixth on the all-time list. She also served as Yale volleyball coach for 10 years, just recently stepping down.
Brad was a two-sport athlete at Calvin, playing baseball as well. He also played baseball at Grand Valley State. He coached basketball at Yale from 2006-10.
“We’re a very sporty family,” Sadie Dykstra said.
So, when it came time to enter high school, there was never a thought of specializing.
“I came in with the mindset of, I’m going to play three sports each season and enjoy them, too,” Dykstra said. “I don’t want to be in them and have them be the most awful things in the universe. I came in with the mindset of enjoying all three sports.”
While basketball is her current collegiate goal, she did say that competing in basketball and track & field would be something she would consider if given the opportunity. Bearss said Dykstra has Division I potential in track & field, adding that heptathlon could best suit her.
But there are still two more years to figure that out. The next thing for Dykstra to enjoy is track, the sport in which she had the most early success. And while outdoor meets are still a couple weeks away, she’s already locked in.
“She’s just a natural leader, and I think that’s why she’s so disciplined,” Garofalo said. “(Tuesday), I was going over a workout with somebody else, and she just started her warm-ups on her own. She’s not afraid to lead 60 other kids, even though there are juniors and seniors.”
Dykstra has big goals for this spring, mostly based around performance marks. She’s eyeing the Yale school long jump record of 18 feet, 1¾ inches, which is less than an inch longer than her personal best of 18-1. She’d like to move that record closer to 19 feet.
Her 100 hurdle PR (personal record) sits at 15.59 seconds, and she’d like to knock that into the low 15s or even high 14s. For the 300 hurdles, where her PR is 47 seconds, she’d like to get down to 45.
“I have big goals, and I think I can get to them,” she said. “But that’s something for the end of the season to play out and see how that goes.”
Anybody who’s watched her wouldn’t doubt that Dykstra can reach those goals. And that list, along with those accomplishments, continues to grow.
“Last year we went to Ortonville Brandon, and we had really nice weather that day and the competition was really good – a lot of schools there,” Bearss said. “Even with all of those great athletes, you could just kind of see, people are pointing and looking, ‘There’s that girl from Yale.’ They’re taking notice. Every once in a while, you get kids that turn heads like that.”
Paul Costanzo served as a sportswriter at The Port Huron Times Herald from 2006-15, including three years as lead sportswriter, and prior to that as sports editor at the Hillsdale Daily News from 2005-06. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair, Sanilac, Huron, Tuscola, Saginaw, Bay, Arenac, Midland and Gladwin counties.
PHOTOS (Top) Yale’s Sadie Dykstra launches into a long jump last spring. (Middle) Dykstra brings the ball upcourt against Armada. (Below) Dykstra stands at the net during volleyball season. (Photos courtesy of the Dykstra family.)