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Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
![North Farmington's Penelope Creary brings the ball upcourt during her team's Feb. 16 win over Rochester Adams.](/sites/default/files/2023-02/230220_GBB_2H.jpg.png)
Breslin Bound: 2022-23 Girls Report Week 12
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
February 20, 2023
The seeds for this season’s District brackets are set as nearly 700 Michigan girls basketball teams are finishing up their regular seasons this week in advance of the playoffs beginning Feb. 27.
Brackets were seeded and filled Sunday, and published here for all four divisions:
Division 1 | Division 2 | Division 3 | Division 4
This will be the last of our regular-season “Breslin Bound” reports, as next week we switch the format up a bit while previewing several of the strongest Districts across the state.
“Breslin Bound” is powered by MI Student Aid and based on results and schedules posted for each school at MHSAA.com.
Week in Review
The countdown of last week’s five most intriguing results:
1. Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard 41, Farmington Hills Mercy 27 The Irish (17-3) won the season series with Mercy (17-3), following up their league schedule split with this victory in the Detroit Catholic League Bishop championship game.
2. Grosse Pointe North 36, Utica Ford 28 A Feb. 7 matchup was canceled, but these league champions met after all as North (17-2) claimed the Macomb Area Conference Red/White Tournament title against the Falcons (17-2).
3. Dansville 43, Fowler 38 (OT) The Aggies (17-1) clinched a share of the Central Michigan Athletic Conference championship in memorable fashion by completing a regular-season sweep of the two-time reigning Division 4 champion Eagles (13-7).
4. Frankenmuth 46, Freeland 39 (OT) The Eagles (17-2) ran their Tri-Valley Conference 8 winning streak to 41 in clinching a share of a third-straight league title, with their last TVC loss coming in 2020 to the Falcons (15-5).
5. Rockford 50, Haslett 36 This matchup of league champions saw Rockford move to 19-1 in handing Haslett (20-1) its only defeat.
Watch List
With an eye toward March, here are two teams in each division making sparks:
DIVISION 1
Coldwater (19-1) The Cardinals made a jump from three wins just two seasons ago to 12-10 last winter and now near-perfect and in position to at least share the Interstate 8 Athletic Conference championship. Coldwater avenged that lone loss, 50-46 to Jackson Northwest on Jan. 10, with a 57-51 victory Feb. 7. Those two are tied for the league lead with two games left to play for both. Coldwater also earned the top seed at the Battle Creek Lakeview District.
North Farmington (20-0) The Raiders are another notable story of a quick turnaround as they’ve gone from six wins two seasons ago to 12-9 last winter to undefeated. They lead the Oakland Activities Association White by a game over Oxford and face the Wildcats on Tuesday with an opportunity to clinch the championship outright. North Farmington also earned the second seed in the District it will be hosting next week.
DIVISION 2
Marysville (16-4) The Vikings have won 11 of their last 12 games, along the way clinching the MAC Blue championship and winning the MAC Blue/Gold Tournament last week with a 41-22 victory over Marine City (15-4). Marysville also avenged an early loss to St. Clair (14-6) in the tournament semifinal, and earned the top seed in the District hosted by Armada as the Vikings seek to build on last year’s Quarterfinal run.
Wayland (17-3) The Wildcats had averaged nearly 14 wins over the last three seasons, so they’ve grown accustomed to being in the mix. But this winter has seen another step forward, as Wayland has won 13 of its last 14 games and clinched a share of the Ottawa-Kent Conference Gold title with a 46-39 victory Friday over Grand Rapids South Christian – which had handed the Wildcats their most recent defeat, 54-48 on Jan. 20. Wayland also earned a top District seed, at Hopkins, with its only other losses to Byron Center (17-3) and Grand Rapids West Catholic (19-0).
DIVISION 3
Ithaca (17-3) The Yellowjackets have bounced back from a two-game stumble near the end of January to earn a chance to clinch a share of the Tri-Valley Conference 10-2 title Friday. They’re tied atop the league with Saginaw Valley Lutheran – with which they split their regular-season series – and Ithaca earned the second seed in one of the strongest Districts in Division 3, at Bath. Ithaca is up to No. 9 overall in Division 3 MPR, with wins over Valley Lutheran (17-3) and Standish-Sterling (17-3) among 10 total over teams with winning records.
Watervliet (16-4) The Panthers finished a perfect run through the Southwestern Athletic Conference Lakeshore last week with a second win over Bridgman (15-4), with that pair and another over SAC Central champion Martin (15-4) among the most notable victories next also to strong losses to Buchanan (18-1), Benton Harbor (13-8), Kalamazoo Christian (17-3) and Stevensville Lakeshore (14-5). Watervliet will be the top seed next week at Bloomingdale.
DIVISION 4
Ontonagon (15-5) The Gladiators have won 15 games for the second-straight season and at least 13 for the fifth consecutive, and they’ve clinched a title share of the Porcupine Mountain division of the Copper Mountain Conference. Ontonagon is the top seed at next week’s District at Bessemer and is 9-0 this season against the other teams in the bracket, with a pair of wins over second seed Ewen-Trout Creek part of the team’s best work. The Gladiators also have a sweep of Lake Linden-Hubbell (15-5) and notable losses to Baraga (16-4) twice, Hancock (17-1) and Calumet (15-4).
Petersburg Summerfield (18-2) A 46-28 win over Morenci on Thursday avenged a 48-41 loss from Jan. 17 and locked up a shared Tri-County Conference championship between the two. Summerfield also sits No. 15 overall in Division 4 MPR and is the top seed at next week’s District at Britton Deerfield. The Bulldogs’ only other loss this season was to Division 2 Ida, 50-42 on Dec. 6, and they defeated Manchester and East Jackson at the end of that month to win Adrian College’s holiday tournament.
Can’t-Miss Contests
Be on the lookout for results of these games coming up:
Tuesday – Holt (17-3) at DeWitt (18-2) – The Rams own a share of the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue title thanks to a 55-53 win over the Panthers from Jan. 31, but DeWitt still has a chance to earn a share as well.
Thursday – Lake City (19-1) at McBain (16-4) – Three teams still have a chance to earn a piece of the Highland Conference title, with this matchup determining if Lake City claims it outright or shares it with McBain and Evart.
Thursday – Wixom St. Catherine (19-1) at Riverview (18-2) – These two will get some more valuable postseason prep with Riverview No. 16 in Division 1 MPR and St. Catherine No. 7 in Division 2.
Thursday – Detroit Renaissance (18-0) at Ann Arbor Father Gabriel Richard (17-3) – The champions of the Detroit Public School League and Catholic League Bishop tournaments, respectively, meet in the annual Operation Friendship game.
Thursday – Farwell (16-4) at Sanford Meridian (18-1) – Should both win (or both lose) Tuesday, this will determine if Meridian wins the Jack Pine Conference title outright or shares it with the Eagles.
MHSAA.com's weekly “Breslin Bound” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Office of Postsecondary Financial Planning located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 college savings programs (MET/MESP), as well as scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.
PHOTO North Farmington's Penelope Creary (3) brings the ball upcourt during her team's Feb. 16 win over Rochester Adams. (Photo courtesy of the North Farmington athletic department.)