Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
Breslin Bound: 2022-23 Girls District Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
February 27, 2023
The three-week journey to East Lansing everyone hopes to travel starts tonight with 169 District openers all over the state.
“Breslin Bound’ switches up a bit as we drive toward next month’s championship events at Breslin Center. See below for some of the results from the last week of the regular season that made the biggest impressions, and then check out three Districts in each division that could be the most interesting from this first round of the MHSAA Tournament.
Everything else you could want to know about tickets, brackets and more can be found on the Girls Basketball page. To watch any of several games online, visit the NFHS Network.
“Breslin Bound” is powered by MI Student Aid and based on results and schedules posted for each school at MHSAA.com.
Week in Review
The countdown of last week’s five most intriguing results:
1. Ann Arbor Father Gabriel Richard 53, Detroit Renaissance 52 (OT) The Operation Friendship game featuring the Detroit Catholic League and Public School League tournament champions saw the Irish (19-3) continue a 10-game winning streak by handing Renaissance (18-1) its only defeat.
2. Salem 74, Wayne Memorial 71 (OT) Salem (16-6) was 2-15 just two seasons ago, but added the overall Kensington Lakes Activities Association championship to its quick ascension with this win over the Zebras (17-5).
3. Lansing Catholic 65, Ypsilanti Arbor Prep 38 The Cougars (17-5) have won 15 of their last 16, highlighted by this one over the reigning Division 3 champion Gators (15-6).
4. Sault Ste. Marie 44, Escanaba 38 The Blue Devils (17-2) have a strong case as best in the Upper Peninsula this season after avenging a December loss to the Eskymos (18-2).
5. DeWitt 48, Holt 43 The Panthers (20-2) were perfect in February after losing to the Rams (18-4) to end January; this win in the rematch set DeWitt up to clinch a shared Capital Area Activities Conference Blue title with Holt in its regular-season finale.
Districts at a Glance
These could be among our most competitive brackets. Host sites are in bold:
DIVISION 1
Marquette (non-traditional)
1. Traverse City Central (16-6), 2. Sault Ste. Marie (17-2), Petoskey (14-8), Marquette (9-12), Alpena (8-14), Gaylord (13-9), Traverse City West (5-16).
As noted above, Sault Ste. Marie is arguably the best from the Upper Peninsula and moved to the top of this District in MPR by the end of the regular season. But when Districts were drawn two weeks ago, Traverse City Central had earned the top seed. These two met Feb. 7, with the Blue Devils winning 49-37. But Sault Ste. Marie can’t look ahead to a rematch with Petoskey the possible opponent Wednesday. The Northmen swept TC Central to win the Big North Conference, clinching the title outright with a 58-47 victory last week.
North Farmington
1. Farmington Hills Mercy (19-3), 2. North Farmington (22-0), Southfield Arts & Technology (4-14), Farmington (11-9), Detroit Henry Ford (4-13).
The most anticipated matchup, of course, is a possible District Final between Mercy and the host Raiders. Only four of North Farmington’s wins were by single digits, while Mercy’s only losses were to Father Gabriel Richard (see above) and Division 2 favorite Detroit Edison. North Farmington does open with a rematch against Southfield A&T, which it defeated 53-42 in its regular-season opener. Also of note, Farmington has won five of its last seven and finished second in the OAA Blue.
Wyoming
1. Byron Center (19-3), 2. East Kentwood (14-7), East Grand Rapids (14-8), Caledonia (6-16), Wyoming (12-10), Middleville Thornapple Kellogg (5-16), Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills (5-17).
Byron Center is carrying a 17-game winning streak and Ottawa-Kent Conference White title into this week and a possible rematch with East Kentwood, which handed the Bulldogs a 43-40 loss to start this season. The Falcons had a tough closing week of the regular season with losses to Holland West Ottawa and Hudsonville, but it’s relative as those teams both are 16-6. East Grand Rapids started 8-1 this season and could be an interesting opponent potentially seeing Byron Center for a third time Wednesday – if the Pioneers get past Wyoming in an opener.
DIVISION 2
Eaton Rapids
1. Haslett (21-1), 2. Lansing Catholic (17-5), Williamston (13-8), Eaton Rapids (6-16), Charlotte (4-18), Lansing Eastern (5-17).
The Vikings’ work has included wins over Jackson Northwest and DeWitt – both 20-2 – and the lone loss to another Division 1 contender, Rockford (21-1). Haslet also defeated Lansing Catholic 59-49 on Feb. 7 – but as noted above, the Cougars are coming off a week that included a win over Arbor Prep, and they own more impressive victories over Father Gabriel Richard, Frankenmuth (19-2) and Lowell (16-6) among others. Lansing Catholic could see Williamston on Wednesday; their regular-season matchup was canceled, but the Hornets finished runners-up to Haslett in the CAAC Red.
Flint Powers Catholic
1. Lake Fenton (22-0), 2. Goodrich (19-3), Flint Powers Catholic (15-7), Linden (14-7).
Lake Fenton and Goodrich met for the third time Friday in the Flint Metro League championship game, and Lake Fenton finished a regular-season sweep with a 41-38 victory. The Blue Devils also own a pair of wins over Linden, which will face Goodrich on Wednesday after the Martians took their regular-season meeting 43-27. Powers, fourth place out of the Division 1-loaded Saginaw Valley League, is something of a wild card because of the strong competition it’s faced. Few teams have as many good losses, and a win over Bay City Western (15-7) was among highlights.
Pinckney
1. Ann Arbor Father Gabriel Richard (19-3), 2. Wixom St. Catherine (21-1), Chelsea (21-1), Pinckney (7-13), Canton Prep (14-6), Fowlerville (4-18).
FGR’s winning streak has included two wins over Mercy, the Renaissance victory and a pair over Dearborn Divine Child (15-6) as well. The team’s losses were to Mercy (twice avenged), Lansing Catholic and Arbor Prep. St. Catherine’s only defeat came to Detroit Country Day during the first week of December, and the Stars went on to win league and league tournament titles as well – and 14 games total over teams with double-digit victories. Chelsea’s only loss this season came to a team from Ohio, Laurel, and it has 11 wins over teams with double-digit victories including Arbor Prep. Chelsea also has two over Tecumseh (18-4), which it outpaced to win the Southeastern Conference White. The Bulldogs open against another league champion, Canton Prep from the Detroit Metro Athletic Conference.
DIVISION 3
Coloma
1. Buchanan (19-1), 2. Niles Brandywine (20-2), Cassopolis (16-6), Bridgman (16-4), Coloma (2-7).
The Bucks are considered a statewide Division 3 contender with arguably the top player in Miss Basketball Award finalist Faith Carson. But things will be tough right away as they await a District-opening result from Bridgman and Cassopolis – the latter the champion from the Southwest 10 Conference South. On the other side of the bracket is Brandywine, which finished second to Buchanan in the Lakeland Conference with its only losses this season to the Bucks – 49-45 in overtime Dec. 15 and 52-41 on Feb. 2. Brandywine also has a 64-39 win over Cassopolis. Buchanan’s only loss was to still-undefeated Vicksburg (22-0) in the season opener, and it defeated Watervliet (18-4) – which swept Bridgman.
Gwinn
1. Hancock (19-1), 2. Calumet (16-4), Negaunee (18-4), Ishpeming (15-6), Gwinn (6-14), Ishpeming Westwood (8-13).
All six of these teams play in the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference, with Hancock and Calumet the top two from the West and Negaunee and Ishpeming first and second, respectively, from the East. Hancock also has an argument this winter as the U.P.’s best team, its lone loss 50-49 to Escanaba in January. Calumet defeated Escanaba 59-57 a few weeks later and lost to Hancock by only three and six points. Negaunee got all of its defeats out of the way in December, falling to Hancock and Calumet but avenging the latter 44-43 on Feb. 7. Ishpeming lost to Negaunee by a point only three days later. Hancock and the Hematites are on the top of the bracket, while Calumet and Negaunee are on the bottom. So is Westwood, which has won five of its last six.
Sanford Meridian
1. Hemlock (19-3), 2. Sanford Meridian (19-1), Saginaw Valley Lutheran (19-3), Beal City (14-7), St. Louis (13-9).
This District features three league champions – Hemlock from the Tri-Valley Conference West 10-1, Valley Lutheran from the TVC West 10-2 and host Meridian from the Jack Pine Conference. Meridian’s only loss was in overtime to Division 2 Marysville (18-4), and it has wins over Freeland, Farwell and Evart, which all have won at least 17 games. The Mustangs open with St. Louis, while on the other side Hemlock will await either Valley Lutheran or Beal City. Hemlock defeated Valley Lutheran by 25 only two weeks ago, but the Chargers showed they can bounce back in avenging an early loss to Ithaca to share their league title. Beal City could show the strength of the Highland Conference, which had three teams contending into last week. Those three handed the Aggies six of their seven losses.
DIVISION 4
Fowler
1. Fowler (15-7), 2. Portland St. Patrick (14-7), Morrice (16-3), Lansing Christian (10-12), Webberville (8-14).
The first steps for Fowler during its back-to-back Division 4 championship runs the last two seasons both required District wins over longtime rival St. Patrick. The teams split their series this regular season, but the Shamrocks are on a roll with six straight wins including 39-36 on Friday over Central Michigan Athletic Conference champion Dansville (18-2). That said, the early St. Patrick loss was Fowler’s only one to a Division 4 team as it loaded the schedule, and the Eagles have seen just about everything they might encounter. Morrice is intriguing; it has won eight straight since a loss to St. Patrick on Jan. 19 and also avenged its long league loss to Genesee. Morrice and Fowler would meet Wednesday if the Orioles can get past Lansing Christian, which also played mostly bigger schools this winter.
Pittsford
1. Pittsford (18-3), 2. Morenci (17-4), Adrian Lenawee Christian (12-10), Waldron (11-10), Camden-Frontier (8-11).
Pittsford has won seven straight to clinch the Southern Central Athletic Association East title, including 41-40 in overtime against Hillsdale Academy which ended up deciding the league championship outright. On the other side of the bracket Morenci has had a tough run of late, with four losses over the last seven games – but the Bulldogs still shared the title in the Tri-County Conference. Morenci gets SCAA Central champion Waldron in its first game Wednesday, while Pittsford could see a Lenawee Christian team that has won seven of its last 10 with a victory during that stretch over Bronson (18-3).
St. Ignace
1. Mackinaw City (21-1), 2. Cedarville/DeTour (15-4), St. Ignace (12-9), Pickford (9-11), Mackinac Island (7-5), Pellston (1-20).
Playoff time generally is St. Ignace time, and the Saints are home this week and have tested themselves again against competition of all sizes from both peninsulas. But the difference this time is St. Ignace split a regular-season series with Cedarville/DeTour – and Cedarville/DeTour won the second meeting 44-38 on Feb. 14. Mackinaw City also no doubt is eager to show it’s taking another step with its lone loss to Division 3 Ovid-Elsie (18-4) and a 57-46 win over the Islanders in early December. The Comets are on top of the bracket, with Cedarville/DeTour, St. Ignace and Pickford on the other side.
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PHOTO Grand Ledge and Caledonia tip off a game this regular season. (Click for more from High School Sports Scene.)