Soccer, Hoops Next to Seed Using MPR
August 6, 2019
By Rob Kaminski
MHSAA benchmarks editor
As the topic of seeding for MHSAA Tournaments continues to swirl in the air of numerous committee meetings on an annual basis, one of the primary concerns continues to focus on the simple question: “How?”
The MHSAA for years has been working behind the scenes on potential formulas which could best be used as a standardized tool to assist in measuring strengths of teams in a given sport.
This spring, the MHSAA introduced the Michigan Power Rating in the sport of Boys Lacrosse. The Representative Council approved limited seeding beginning in 2019-20 for girls and boys soccer and girls and boys basketball, and MPR will be the metric to determine which two teams must be seeded on opposite sides of District brackets in those sports.
“The boys lacrosse tournament has been seeded since it was added as an MHSAA-sponsored sport in 2005. The seeding is done by committee based on several criteria, one of which was statewide power rankings generated by a third-party website. In the Fall of 2018, that website ceased operation – it was the perfect opportunity for the MHSAA to develop its own data-driven, purely objective ratings system and incorporate that data into the seeding criteria,” said Cole Malatinsky, administrative assistant for the sport.
“The benefits of the new MPR system have been already mentioned – it is MHSAA controlled, simple, objective, and transparent, and it can be used by other MHSAA sports in the future.”
MPR is a computer rating formula similar to the popular RPI rating. MPR provides a way to measure a team’s strength relative to other teams, based on games played against other MHSAA tournament teams, largely on the strength of their opponents’ schedules. MPR is purely objective using only the game results listed on MHSAA.com – there is no subjective human element.
What is the basic MPR formula?
MPR is calculated using wins, losses and ties for games played between teams entered into the MHSAA tournament. The final MPR number is 25% of the team's winning percentage, plus 50% of its opponent's winning percentage, plus 25% of its opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
MPR = (.25 x W%) + (.50 x OW%) + (.25 x OOW%)
The MPR formula can be applied easily to other MHSAA team sports.
What game data is included in the formula? What game data is not?
MPR looks only at results between opponents entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament. Wins, losses and ties in multi-team shortened game tournaments (lacrosse, soccer) also count. Forfeits also are counted as wins and losses.
MPR does not use the specific scores of a game or the margin of victory in a game. The location of a game is not included in the MPR formula, and the formula weighs results at the beginning of the season the same as results at the end of the season. Scrimmages are not included.
Why use the MPR formula?
Different rating systems have been used in the past or have been recommended to the MHSAA. We wanted to have a rating system where the data was controlled and stored in house and could be used for any sport featuring head-to-head competitions.
With its own rating system the MHSAA also can control the different components of the formula, thus keeping the tenets of scholastic competition at the forefront (like not including margin of victory in the formula). Finally, by listing all scores and team schedules online, as well as showing the MPR calculator on each team schedule page, the ratings are transparent and can be replicated easily.
CALCULATING MPR
What are the detailed components of the MPR formula?
You need three numbers to calculate your MPR: winning percentage (W%), opponent’s winning percentage (OW%) and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%).
How do you calculate winning percentage (W%)?
Divide the number of wins by the number of total games played. A tie is worth half a win. For MPR purposes, find the winning percentage against all teams that will play in the MHSAA tournament (MPR W%). Games played against out-of-state teams, varsity “B” teams, junior varsity teams, non-school club teams, and any other non-MHSAA tournament participants should not be included when calculating winning percentage. W% should be an easy number to calculate.
How do you calculate opponent’s winning percentage (OW%)?
Average the winning percentages of a team's opponents. When calculating the winning percentage of a specific opponent, use the opponents "Adjusted Winning Percentage" (ADJ W%). Adjusted winning percentage eliminates all games the team played against that opponent (as well as its games against non-MHSAA opponents).
For instance, if the team beat an opponent with an overall record of 4-1, use a record of 4-0 (1.000) for that opponent. If the team lost to an opponent, use a record of 3-1 (.750). Find the ADJ W% for all opponents, and then take the average. If a team plays an opponent team twice, that opponent’s ADJ W% will be counted twice.
OW% is not calculated via the combined record of the opponents; instead take the average of all opponent’s winning percentages.
How do you calculate opponent’s opponent’s winning percentage (OOW%)?
Use the same process described above, except calculated for the opponents of a team's opponents. This number is much harder to manually calculate, so the OW% for every team is listed on the MPR page of the MHSAA website.
Again, simply take the average of all opponent’s OW%.
How often is MPR calculated?
MPR is calculated about every five minutes. Enter a score and a minutes later the team MPR and the MPR of all the team's opponents will update.
How much will my MPR change throughout the season?
You will see wild MPR swings in the beginning of the season, but after about 10 games played your MPR will start to level out. At 20 games played you will see very little movement with each additional game played.
My score is missing. How can it be added?
This is a crowd-sourced system. Any registered user of MHSAA.com can add a missing score. ADs, coaches, parents, students and fans all can login and enter a score for any game.
What are some common errors when calculating MPR?
When calculating your team’s winning percentage, only include games against MHSAA-tournament teams. When calculating your opponent’s winning percentage, don’t include the games they played against you. When calculating ties, count the game as a half-win and half-loss.
What happens if a game is cancelled?
Because the MPR system works off of averages, it will not make a difference in the final MPR if a game cannot be rescheduled. It would not penalize, nor benefit, any team involved in that scenario.
USING THE WEBSITE
Where can I find game scores?
A list of statewide scores for all sports can be found in the MHSAA Score Center. To find a schedule for any team click on “Schools & Schedules” in the top navigation bar, search for the school, then once on the school page click the sport. You can also see a list of all schools (with links to schedules), on the statewide MPR list.
“We continue to have great success in score reporting for varsity boys lacrosse contests. While we state that schedule submission and score reporting to MHSAA.com are required, athletic directors and coaches understand that in order for MPR data to be accurate, we need consistent and accurate score reporting,” said Malatinsky. “MHSAA.com is now the primary site for high school boys lacrosse schedules, results and ratings in the state.”
How should I use the statewide list of teams and MPR?
Linked to the boys soccer page (and eventually to be added for both basketball pages and girls soccer) is a statewide listing of all Michigan Power Ratings (MPR) for teams entered into the MHSAA postseason tournament for that sport. Linked on the MPR page is an explanation of the District draw formula, describing when and how teams will be placed on the bracket.
The MPR data updates every five minutes. Click on the column headings to sort the data. You also can use the drop-down menu to show teams in one Division, or type a District number in the box to filter teams for that District (Region for boys lacrosse).
You also can click on any school name to go to its schedule page.
How do I read the school schedule page?
The schedule at the top of the page shows the date and opponent for all scheduled games, and results for games already played. If results are missing, click “Submit Score” to add a game score.
Below the game schedule is the MPR Calculator. The calculator is split into three sections. The first section shows the three MPR component scores for the team, as well as the team’s current MPR score. The second section shows the MPR information for the team’s opponents – specifically, for the opponents the team already has played (actually, for games where scores have been submitted). Only these games are included in the MPR calculation.
The third section highlights future opponents. The MPR data for future opponents are not used in the MPR calculation for the team.
PHOTO: East Kentwood and Ann Arbor Skyline play for last season’s Division 1 boys soccer championship.
'Ultimate Competitor' Collins Catalyzing Blissfield's Championship Pursuit
By
Doug Donnelly
Special for MHSAA.com
March 7, 2023
BLISSFIELD – Avery Collins has played with a broken nose, ankle sprain and a sore back.
Earlier this season, the Blissfield junior was in the emergency room one night and on the basketball floor the next day.
“She texted me first thing in the morning and said, ‘I’m ready to play Coach,’” said Royals head coach Ryan Gilbert. “I said, ‘No, you’re not.’ She was cleared to play, so she played. It’s hard to tell her no.”
Collins is the catalyst behind Blissfield’s 23-1 record heading into tonight’s Division 3 Regional Semifinal against Hanover-Horton at Concord. Already a three-year starter, Collins is a ballhawk on defense, expert dribbler on offense and a competitor all the way.
“I’m constantly talking basketball with people, either my dad, my coach, or even family friends,” Collins said. “I want to make this season so memorable and with the team we have, I knew it was possible.”
When it comes to intensity, Collins has an extra gear. Opposing coaches quickly recognize that.
“Avery is hands down the best player on the court night-in and night-out,” said Onsted head coach Brandon Arnold. “She’s tough. She does so many things for them.”
Blissfield started the season 7-0 before being tripped up by Grand Blanc in the Motor City Roundball Classic. The Royals haven’t lost since, running off 16 straight wins, including in the District championship game Saturday.
Defense has been the key.
Opponents are averaging just 26.5 points a game against the Royals. Seven opponents have scored 21 or fewer points.
Offensively, Blissfield averages four 3-pointers a game, shoots 60 percent from the free throw line and has four players with at least 150 points on the season.
Collins averages 11.0 points, 3.0 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 4.0 steals a game. She’s sat out several fourth quarters this season as the Royals have had big leads. In the District Semifinal against Erie Mason, she didn’t see the court in the second half.
Gilbert said she sits out more fourth quarters than she would like, but she also knows it makes the team stronger the more experience others get.
“What you wouldn't know if you don't come watch her play is how her energy transfers to the rest of the team and the crowd,” Gilbert said. “Her grit and determination rubs off on everyone around her. I can’t tell you how many times the opponent turns it over because of her defensive pressure. She has pieces around her. She doesn't have to score 20 a game for this team to be successful. She could, but she doesn't have to.”
If the game is close, the ball is in her hands. She shoots 70 percent from the free throw line and has become quite adept at dribbling away from opponents so they can’t foul her with the clock winding down.
“She has the ability to change a game without scoring,” Gilbert said.
Collins missed her AAU season this past summer due to a collarbone injury sustained during soccer season. She missed the early part of soccer with a broken nose that happened in basketball, although she never missed time on the court for it.
The downtime, she said, helped keep her motivated when she was able to get a ball in her hands again.
“I was extra ready to get back,” she said. “We all knew what this team could have in store this season, and that made me want to get better even more.”
Collins put in a lot of work to get ready for this season. Her shooting has improved. She’s made 22 triples, but the bulk of her points come on steals and layups.
“Before the season, my dad and I were doing a strength and conditioning workout almost every night, then after the workout, I’d go shoot at least 500 shots in the gym,” she said. “My dad has pushed me to be the best me that I can be. I’m always looking to put the work in to be better, because not only does it make me better, but it also helps my team as well.”
The Royals have just two seniors, 6-footers Julia White (10.0 points and 10.0 rebounds a game) and Sarah Bettis, a Division 1 volleyball signee with the University of Akron. June Miller leads the team in 3-pointers with 32, and Abrie Louden has been steady all season at both ends of the floor. Freshman Leigh Wyman and sophomore Peyton Tennant have come off the bench all season, ready to provide a spark, especially on defense. The combination has the Royals tied for the lead in Division 3 with 23 wins and ranked No. 3 in the final Associated Press poll.
“Coming into this season, we knew we’d have a real shot at getting the league title,” Collins said. “I believe we will carry this energy as far as we get because of what our possible outcomes are in the state tournament.”
The Royals play well together. They average about 19 field goals made a game – and 14 assists.
Gilbert, in his 15th season as Blissfield coach, calls Collins the ultimate competitor.
“She has a fiery chip on her shoulder,” he said. “She plays her best during the biggest of games. There is an edge about her that few have. She's just wired differently.”
Doug Donnelly has served as a sports and news reporter and city editor over 25 years, writing for the Daily Chief-Union in Upper Sandusky, Ohio from 1992-1995, the Monroe Evening News from 1995-2012 and the Adrian Daily Telegram since 2013. He's also written a book on high school basketball in Monroe County and compiles record books for various schools in southeast Michigan. E-mail him at [email protected] with story ideas for Jackson, Washtenaw, Hillsdale, Lenawee and Monroe counties.
PHOTOS (Top) Blissfield’s Avery Collins directs her team’s offense this season against Adrian Lenawee Christian. (Middle) Collins gets to the basket; she’s averaging 11 points per game. (Photos by Deloris Clark-Osborne.)